TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Green vs. Ruffy

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ruffyof Green, Ruffy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc954…bdf5backed Green17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7004259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Green20c5,482$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.1735826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Green19c4,248$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.686829.4%20 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed Ruffy80c4,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201275%9 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Green28c3,594$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ruffy79c3,516$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.8553956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Green19c3,434$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.4514857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Green19c2,291$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6542042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Ruffy80c2,217$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.561040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Green2c2,105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Green19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Green20c1,500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5642…e859backed Green20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Green21c1,035$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203040%12 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Green21c999.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.996453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Green21c971.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ruffy78c923.72$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8633253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Ruffy79c858.03$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1917158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35f…c62abacked Green20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Ruffy51c728.11$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.782725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Green19c670$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Green20c502.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Green20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Green19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9535539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Green19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…c0e6backed Green19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…ffe6backed Green20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Green19c499.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ruffy78c360.06$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdba1…e6cdbacked Green19c310.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Green7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9d…2461backed Ruffy80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Green20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Green19c219$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Green13c203.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.121031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Green19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3825251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Ruffy78c190$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.85642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e5…44d9backed Green20c159.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86bc…e452backed Green19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Ruffy78c152$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Green19c149.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Ruffy79c145$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.459062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a5…3875backed Green21c130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a1…1a67backed Ruffy79c130$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Green21c119.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48a…67dabacked Green18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f91…dd16backed Green18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+65%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1516…d78ebacked Green19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Ruffy80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Green20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ed…c7debacked Green20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Green19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc4…c11bbacked Green20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xded0…4319backed Green21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…9a24backed Ruffy79c88.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Ruffy80c80.84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.175858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3107…cb35backed Ruffy80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedda…c419backed Green20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Green19c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.256245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919c…5afebacked Green20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad0…e7c3backed Green19c73.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…28ddbacked Ruffy80c62.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.641353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c0…c3b3backed Green21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7835…1cedbacked Ruffy79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9979…f60dbacked Ruffy80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e07…c9d7backed Green21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80fd…3fcdbacked Ruffy79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…fa5ebacked Green20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Green20c51.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a8…6dfdbacked Green20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Ruffy80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed Ruffy80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba0…2670backed Green20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78f2…51a1backed Green20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5484…f227backed Green21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0975…bdd1backed Ruffy80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Ruffy79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.324259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Ruffy80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56360.3%38 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x364d…5839backed Ruffy80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ace…6ab1backed Ruffy80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dda…a70abacked Ruffy79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Ruffy80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…9f7dbacked Ruffy80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Ruffy80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53976.9%30 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.