UFC · resolved market
Gaethje vs. Fiziev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3bfea9f4b703774c5b7ab02c24339b98a57ec342688046a4677c6d6915c601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gaethjeof Gaethje, Fiziev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $396,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Gaethje | 41c | 54,093$22,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,963.05 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Fiziev | 59c | 36,385$21,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,286.31 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Fiziev | 58c | 27,314$15,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,842.27 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Gaethje | 42c | 26,565$11,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,358.83 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…55a1backed Fiziev | 59c | 24,342$14,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,294.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Fiziev | 59c | 18,170$10,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,720.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…f1f7backed Gaethje | 42c | 17,000$7,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,859.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Fiziev | 59c | 16,000$9,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,439.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…8775backed Gaethje | 42c | 12,439$5,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,261.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…e11abacked Gaethje | 42c | 11,243$4,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,517.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Fiziev | 58c | 9,860$5,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,718.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Fiziev | 59c | 8,038$4,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,742.73 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…e502backed Gaethje | 42c | 7,500$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,350 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Fiziev | 58c | 6,438$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.83 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…c276backed Fiziev | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Gaethje | 41c | 5,000$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.75 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…e859backed Gaethje | 42c | 4,845$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Fiziev | 58c | 4,396$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.65 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…24ebbacked Gaethje | 46c | 3,888$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fiziev | 32c | 3,785$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.09 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Gaethje | 43c | 3,735$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.49 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Fiziev | 59c | 3,500$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Gaethje | 41c | 3,488$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,047.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fiziev | 57c | 3,464$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.31 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…ab4dbacked Fiziev | 59c | 3,012$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Fiziev | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Gaethje | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…d246backed Gaethje | 42c | 2,917$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Gaethje | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…7b64backed Gaethje | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gaethje | 67c | 2,111$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.18 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Fiziev | 59c | 2,050$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.48 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Fiziev | 58c | 2,015$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Fiziev | 45c | 2,005$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Fiziev | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Fiziev | 34c | 1,998$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.31 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Fiziev | 37c | 1,983$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.59 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Fiziev | 58c | 1,800$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.99 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…6150backed Fiziev | 2c | 1,782$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Fiziev | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Fiziev | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f74…64f1backed Gaethje | 42c | 1,429$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Gaethje | 41c | 1,345$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Gaethje | 42c | 1,343$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Fiziev | 60c | 1,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…d67dbacked Gaethje | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Gaethje | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Gaethje | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7e73backed Gaethje | 42c | 1,171$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Gaethje | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Fiziev | 59c | 1,160$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.32 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Fiziev | 59c | 1,127$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…b02dbacked Fiziev | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked Gaethje | 78c | 950.95$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Fiziev | 58c | 944.99$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.49 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Fiziev | 57c | 888$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.16 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Gaethje | 42c | 879.76$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…8882backed Fiziev | 59c | 867.49$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…b243backed Fiziev | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Gaethje | 42c | 840.57$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.88 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Fiziev | 55c | 788.99$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.95 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Fiziev | 48c | 755.36$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed Fiziev | 40c | 752.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Fiziev | 61c | 720$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…bbefbacked Gaethje | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Gaethje | 78c | 710.68$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Gaethje | 43c | 700.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.83 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…d2a9backed Gaethje | 42c | 678.57$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Fiziev | 33c | 624.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Gaethje | 41c | 606.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.72 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Gaethje | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…b494backed Gaethje | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Gaethje | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e9…a868backed Gaethje | 75c | 577.38$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Gaethje | 59c | 562.7$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8003…9032backed Gaethje | 41c | 559.3$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…4dc3backed Gaethje | 54c | 557.39$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fiziev | 58c | 549.96$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.98 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fiziev | 57c | 547.49$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.07 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Gaethje | 79c | 538.23$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Fiziev | 42c | 529.83$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.22 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…c7debacked Gaethje | 41c | 513.92$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Gaethje | 40c | 513.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Gaethje | 42c | 503.71$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.15 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…4fd3backed Gaethje | 42c | 503.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…b17bbacked Fiziev | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Fiziev | 56c | 499.73$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.85 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Gaethje | 41c | 488$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Fiziev | 39c | 469.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Gaethje | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Fiziev | 8c | 451.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Gaethje | 41c | 451.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Gaethje | 41c | 420$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…6c31backed Gaethje | 65c | 417.27$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e2…f03bbacked Fiziev | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Gaethje | 42c | 415.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Gaethje | 41c | 365.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…1502backed Gaethje | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed Fiziev | 60c | 343.22$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Fiziev | 60c | 340$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gaethje vs. Fizievthis page
- Alex Morono vs. Carlos LealLeal won
- Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen PetrosyanFerreira won
- Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy DiazDiaz won
- Green vs. RuffyRuffy won
- Joshua Van vs. Rei TsuruyaVan won
- Lemos vs. LucindoLemos won
- Mairon Santos vs. Francis MarshallSantos won
- Pereira vs. AnkalaevAnkalaev won
- Turner vs. BahamondesBahamondes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.