UFC · resolved market
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb59b4832e727721c86d72b8fef51444c3f25b3b84864d1eaae76bd2e65d84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santosof Santos, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b48…55a1backed Marshall | 41c | 10,978$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,454.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Santos | 68c | 7,958$5,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.43 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Santos | 38c | 6,681$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,136.81 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Santos | 45c | 6,047$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.49 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Marshall | 31c | 3,785$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.61 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Marshall | 34c | 3,165$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.77 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Santos | 69c | 2,462$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.76 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Santos | 70c | 2,319$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.67 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Marshall | 30c | 2,050$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Santos | 37c | 1,841$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.86 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…9f1abacked Santos | 73c | 1,500$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Santos | 68c | 1,400$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Marshall | 59c | 1,328$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.52 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Marshall | 61c | 1,088$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.38 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Marshall | 33c | 1,041$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Santos | 70c | 832$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Santos | 71c | 819.68$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Santos | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Santos | 76c | 471.98$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed Santos | 72c | 455.52$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Marshall | 30c | 384.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Marshall | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Marshall | 29c | 330.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…c7debacked Santos | 68c | 328.09$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Marshall | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…cb01backed Marshall | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Santos | 68c | 295$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Santos | 72c | 282.96$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Marshall | 33c | 260.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Santos | 74c | 240$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Marshall | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Santos | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Santos | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbd…e0fcbacked Marshall | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…8a2bbacked Santos | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Santos | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Marshall | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Marshall | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Santos | 67c | 113.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Santos | 11c | 112$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…a54bbacked Marshall | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…fae3backed Santos | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Marshall | 27c | 101.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Santos | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…39ccbacked Santos | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Marshall | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a6…e05bbacked Marshall | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Marshall | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marshall | 30c | 99.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Santos | 69c | 84.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…beabbacked Santos | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…6945backed Marshall | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Santos | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15c…e6e4backed Santos | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Santos | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…49b4backed Marshall | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Marshall | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…9badbacked Santos | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Marshall | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…6e07backed Marshall | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…28ddbacked Santos | 69c | 59.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Marshall | 28c | 59.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…dcc6backed Marshall | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Santos | 25c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Santos | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…5f3ebacked Santos | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed Santos | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…b79dbacked Marshall | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…bc7abacked Santos | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Marshall | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Marshall | 28c | 39.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…d419backed Marshall | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Marshall | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…19e2backed Santos | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…e10fbacked Santos | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Santos | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…c7c8backed Santos | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed Santos | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Santos | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshallthis page
- Alex Morono vs. Carlos LealLeal won
- Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen PetrosyanFerreira won
- Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy DiazDiaz won
- Gaethje vs. FizievGaethje won
- Green vs. RuffyRuffy won
- Joshua Van vs. Rei TsuruyaVan won
- Lemos vs. LucindoLemos won
- Pereira vs. AnkalaevAnkalaev won
- Turner vs. BahamondesBahamondes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.