UFC · resolved market
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81330ef8928720517cf54744ae6e91dcf0b61519c0e499376acb3bc74632026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lealof Morono, Leal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Morono | 14c | 5,750$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.9 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Morono | 15c | 5,050$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Morono | 14c | 4,448$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.71 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Morono | 16c | 3,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Morono | 15c | 2,474$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.1 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Morono | 14c | 2,011$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Morono | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Leal | 80c | 999.5$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Morono | 16c | 954.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Morono | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Morono | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Morono | 20c | 487$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…39d3backed Morono | 16c | 313$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…8f31backed Morono | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Morono | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Morono | 16c | 191.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Morono | 15c | 175$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d62…2346backed Morono | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…7aa7backed Morono | 14c | 155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cb…de2fbacked Morono | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e61…4b75backed Morono | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…8dd8backed Morono | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…4319backed Morono | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…8310backed Morono | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Morono | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…7a99backed Morono | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4962…6ecdbacked Morono | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…5f78backed Morono | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Morono | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…41febacked Morono | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…b9a2backed Morono | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…24fbbacked Morono | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…4229backed Morono | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Morono | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Morono | 17c | 94.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…a9a4backed Morono | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8b…84d0backed Morono | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…6dfdbacked Morono | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…8eb2backed Morono | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…d419backed Morono | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alex Morono vs. Carlos Lealthis page
- Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen PetrosyanFerreira won
- Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy DiazDiaz won
- Gaethje vs. FizievGaethje won
- Green vs. RuffyRuffy won
- Joshua Van vs. Rei TsuruyaVan won
- Lemos vs. LucindoLemos won
- Mairon Santos vs. Francis MarshallSantos won
- Pereira vs. AnkalaevAnkalaev won
- Turner vs. BahamondesBahamondes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.