Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x477e53ad8d1b0d32a43ea36786cb9980fff964e9a2f550ad112d8f9155f6ee2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa074…49c3backed Yes | 39c | 10,122$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,221.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…2df0backed Yes | 26c | 10,011$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,408.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb811…c119backed Yes | 26c | 10,002$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,401.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…c2d6backed No | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8294…4488backed No | 74c | 9,999$7,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,399.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 7,874$4,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725.06 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 48c | 6,361$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.17 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed No | 67c | 1,300$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.99 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 39c | 1,026$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.51 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 61c | 551.39$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.81 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 40c | 452.5$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked No | 9c | 431.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked No | 75c | 400.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 8c | 390.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 25c | 362.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 77c | 352.75$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 28c | 236.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked No | 31c | 224.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…2785backed Yes | 38c | 156.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 72c | 137.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 71c | 131.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0595…e884backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 106.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 25c | 90.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 53c | 89.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…6685backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…c35bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 59.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…e47bbacked No | 33c | 42.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4b52backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…a800backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…9ce3backed Yes | 42c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-06?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.