TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,816,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,612,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,816,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821a…1f18backed Yes6c189,005$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,20050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes14c176,127$24,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,305.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes10c147,420$15,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,445.151216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes15c140,090$20,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,958.361414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes19c102,171$19,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,239.8570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes7c77,122$5,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.35219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes22c71,176$15,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,423.5260%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes13c68,699$8,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,675.27140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes15c56,081$8,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,285.342917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes3c50,736$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c50,238$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.944316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes17c49,770$8,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,375.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed No75c49,136$36,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,219.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c44,844$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.085121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee5…e8b8backed Yes21c44,465$9,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,373.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes8c42,011$3,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,207.13132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes12c41,281$5,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,153.67460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No77c37,306$28,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,526.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes8c35,461$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.1825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed No64c32,416$20,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,586.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes8c32,153$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick19cpaid+146%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes10c29,247$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes7c28,835$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.181442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes2c27,213$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.741741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes5c27,181$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes18c25,495$4,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,65930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed No73c25,389$18,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,824.23650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes7c24,812$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.612326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x840f…48e4backed Yes21c24,707$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes7c24,685$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…4e0abacked Yes20c24,641$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes34c23,237$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,888.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes19c23,011$4,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.21735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes3c22,491$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.291428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes21c22,381$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes18c22,279$3,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.974126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes6c21,727$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.691729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick16cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No71c21,516$15,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,287.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes2c21,378$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No74c20,848$15,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,386.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes20c20,734$4,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.571526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c20,208$4,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.192725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6238…5f13backed Yes3c20,000$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.2130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes27c18,440$4,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,920.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes21c18,263$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25ee…c453backed Yes23c18,091$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c17…83c8backed No72c17,535$12,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,893.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes18c17,100$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,135540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes11c16,824$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes23c16,626$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,747.031926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes20c16,173$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.39650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2d…8bbcbacked Yes7c16,166$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes13c15,687$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.59175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c15,501$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.7219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No73c15,402$11,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes13c15,367$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.53702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd30…ad89backed No68c15,117$10,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes19c15,049$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes7c14,829$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes4c14,816$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes31c14,776$4,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Yes27c14,726$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,990.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes23c13,888$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.0150%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes5c13,840$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc06a…f31fbacked Yes22c13,816$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c13,718$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.03160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…6388backed Yes31c13,695$4,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,232.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes31c13,493$4,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,187.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes7c13,330$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No78c13,272$10,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes6c13,068$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed No70c12,736$8,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,820.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes27c12,689$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c12,442$9,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.054839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes5c12,349$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.681540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes20c12,241$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.123828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes13c12,150$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.93119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes20c12,000$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No77c11,992$9,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.51650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes10c11,907$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.874348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf87…9200backed Yes31c11,795$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes18c11,670$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f2…60fbbacked Yes1c11,634$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes9c11,513$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes26c11,218$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.27616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5685…62e2backed No78c11,133$8,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes3c11,058$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.42273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-86.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No79c11,000$8,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a35…bc55backed No76c10,620$8,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.15100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6815…e90fbacked Yes27c10,593$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes27c10,576$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes6c10,540$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No72c10,174$7,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b4…4278backed No78c10,123$7,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.97862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed No78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes27c9,999$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.143063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes27c9,930$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.8960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes13c9,927$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed No74c9,769$7,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.