TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$401,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$428,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,690 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes0c47,594$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.191414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes0c38,669$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.31216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03af…87cbbacked Yes23c28,057$6,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,473.96911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes0c21,397$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.312619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes2c15,602$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes0c13,847$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.85166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-88%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c13,379$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c10,000$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes0c9,548$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.642010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes2c8,515$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes1c5,947$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No71c5,777$4,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.383828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No70c5,225$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No78c4,775$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes1c4,752$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.775121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…b73abacked Yes2c4,700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes6c4,617$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.681560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd11e…699fbacked Yes15c4,539$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes0c4,040$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes10c3,256$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No79c3,184$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.77875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes1c2,961$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.061428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No77c2,178$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.082030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b6…95c1backed Yes2c2,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes3c1,893$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.981040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes5c1,806$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No78c1,756$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.631741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes2c1,660$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No80c1,653$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.25875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes3c1,538$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.343315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e6…1abcbacked Yes1c1,451$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe336…bcacbacked Yes27c1,319$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc08c…fa1fbacked No76c1,200$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes12c1,124$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes2c1,123$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes4c1,100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.05911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed No71c1,093$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9373…9014backed No73c1,069$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bb…4982backed Yes25c956.42$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes9c631.41$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.084533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes21c600$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36a…c0f2backed Yes23c599.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.511250%6 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+69.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No75c508.24$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.651850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-74.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2383…34b1backed Yes20c473.24$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No80c453.38$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.911353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes18c442.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes19c434.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.252619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecef…75fabacked No80c407.56$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes6c399.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes16c399.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…7444backed Yes13c375$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes11c254.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.231850%9 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed Yes19c252.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed No75c240$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…f8a7backed No78c234.78$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No77c230$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52528%7 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa88c…254fbacked No78c228.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe131…174abacked Yes24c208.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec55…6870backed No79c207.42$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes17c205.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51f8…e23ebacked Yes12c205$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes17c204.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x716d…eaf2backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362119%4 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes21c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e81…5d10backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f8…7175backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No73c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes20c197.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.086040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fef…24d6backed Yes24c188.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c188.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.534839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes26c181$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No77c178$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes25c164$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes22c160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No74c121$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+124.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x899e…f470backed Yes26c100.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9394…45e5backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…a403backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x10eb…b078backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked No79c88.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No74c83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+149.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No75c82$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.