TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,444,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,456,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,444,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,385 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed No51c60,874$30,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,860.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes55c56,652$31,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,544.321553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes46c36,797$17,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,704.342326.1%6 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed No49c33,520$16,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,479.17850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No42c33,148$14,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,011.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No45c31,537$14,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,337.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29e4…4982backed No48c28,892$13,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,821.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes57c21,252$12,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,039.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes51c20,267$10,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,837.32941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No50c19,895$9,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,927.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No48c18,879$9,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,068.78128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-87.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No53c18,734$9,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,870.993828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b4…4278backed No56c18,646$10,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,410862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes52c17,301$8,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,352.791258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes45c17,185$7,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,384.375014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes53c16,388$8,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,692.912917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes49c14,782$7,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,569.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+200.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No44c14,087$6,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,198.571850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes50c13,700$6,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,895.962030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes48c13,686$6,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.383953.8%21 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+76.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No52c13,233$6,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,946.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-61.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes54c13,064$7,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,017.522454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddd…9407backed No44c12,971$5,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.11540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No46c12,893$5,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,946.131338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes43c12,823$5,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,309.83540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes52c12,602$6,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,087.122650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No39c11,762$4,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,594.631442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09c…f710backed No58c11,653$6,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,758.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No47c11,441$5,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.153132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No1c11,093$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.681729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked Yes65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5003100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb5…d9a0backed Yes41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No45c9,705$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.69683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No41c9,593$3,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.131866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes47c9,190$4,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,877.571369.2%9 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.48per pick21cpaid+234.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes51c8,776$4,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.061353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes58c8,732$5,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.01887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c8,415$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.157537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked No50c8,315$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No37c7,054$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked No61c7,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x171d…d528backed No61c6,981$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,280.23666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No29c6,877$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No6c6,498$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.561145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No29c6,492$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0460…8d22backed No46c6,460$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b30…c01abacked No43c6,352$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,722.071163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes52c6,331$3,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.941464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2a…0179backed No50c6,194$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3f…e1eebacked No50c5,997$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb52…92eebacked No46c5,989$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.92850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No47c5,873$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.372725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No55c5,659$3,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cf4…5608backed Yes62c5,500$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.985100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes73c5,247$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes55c5,195$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.11833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes51c5,088$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.911338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes48c5,022$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd2a…9be0backed Yes60c4,966$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes62c4,946$3,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.232638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes63c4,912$3,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.391560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes52c4,912$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.562330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No41c4,883$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.631546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9552…0b25backed No43c4,806$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes53c4,755$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes57c4,738$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked No50c4,552$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2871315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdc…ab3abacked Yes59c4,443$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No43c4,427$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.831827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes66c4,358$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.492035%7 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4aa…c5f8backed Yes69c4,354$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…f20bbacked No44c4,315$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes49c4,277$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.992334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes56c4,241$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.871369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No18c4,171$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.781546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac56…6dadbacked No50c4,127$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011a…ca8ebacked Yes45c4,086$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes52c4,082$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.591127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed No26c4,071$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.27475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes65c3,915$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.49650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cee…85dabacked No59c3,892$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes58c3,871$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.17862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b3…62e0backed Yes55c3,860$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes54c3,808$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.095100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes67c3,664$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x566d…d58fbacked Yes48c3,650$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.611030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes58c3,626$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+153.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed No57c3,575$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes58c3,562$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes59c3,500$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a8…586abacked Yes55c3,417$1,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes57c3,379$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,160$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.131644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes51c3,144$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+191%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6815…e90fbacked Yes51c3,143$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.11955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No33c3,008$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.37850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No60c2,970$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes46c2,963$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.491973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.