Venezuela · resolved market
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeeff0fab51826569ed14b4dfe1bf373e0313fedced77c9f32a352b9bfee08c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,417$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 1c | 20,242$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,728$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 14,317$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.23 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Yes | 0c | 14,279$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 7,465$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…5985backed Yes | 0c | 6,169$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 1c | 5,694$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,607$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 3c | 3,895$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 3c | 3,894$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 4c | 2,692$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,647$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…52b7backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 3c | 2,418$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 2c | 1,575$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,567$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…34b1backed Yes | 14c | 1,506$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 1,397$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…2b0dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,221$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd13a…4dd4backed Yes | 12c | 1,080$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…416abacked Yes | 9c | 1,077$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 22c | 899.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…710cbacked No | 80c | 818.7$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…e0e8backed Yes | 15c | 605.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes | 4c | 600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 6c | 566.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed Yes | 15c | 470.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 2c | 466.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…5f25backed Yes | 14c | 419$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 80c | 411.7$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7912…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…c0f2backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 295.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…7444backed Yes | 15c | 222.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…69aabacked Yes | 13c | 165.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 16c | 142.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…69b6backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…5fc2backed Yes | 24c | 84.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 74c | 72.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…7023backed No | 77c | 64.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…1a4bbacked No | 78c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26?this page
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 27?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No won
- US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.