UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGee
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274893e217192a421e3baa4592aff0e9211d94b8263948cfc269b3254d3537a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiesaof Chiesa, McGee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Chiesa | 77c | 7,575$5,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.68 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Chiesa | 78c | 5,774$4,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.48 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed McGee | 24c | 3,751$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.3 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked McGee | 9c | 3,517$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.66 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Chiesa | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked McGee | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Chiesa | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed McGee | 24c | 2,726$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.98 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed McGee | 23c | 2,477$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.71 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Chiesa | 77c | 1,293$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.52 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…0f4abacked McGee | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed McGee | 26c | 1,050$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked McGee | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chiesa | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked McGee | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Chiesa | 75c | 664.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed McGee | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed McGee | 26c | 600$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.17 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked McGee | 17c | 555.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed McGee | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Chiesa | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…13b0backed Chiesa | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed McGee | 23c | 399.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Chiesa | 74c | 379.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked McGee | 22c | 375.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed McGee | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed McGee | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked McGee | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed McGee | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked McGee | 27c | 268.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed McGee | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed McGee | 23c | 132$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked McGee | 25c | 124$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Chiesa | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chiesa | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Chiesa | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed McGee | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Chiesa | 76c | 99.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Chiesa | 75c | 86.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed McGee | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Chiesa | 73c | 79.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed McGee | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed McGee | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Chiesa | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…673fbacked Chiesa | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Chiesa | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Chiesa | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed Chiesa | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Chiesa | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…b570backed Chiesa | 77c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Chiesa | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeethis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.