UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. Sy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf046b3fd8a91c6383fc4e5c24a9152f1f53b8d11b8b3f52706c6251c566bdc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Menifieldof Menifield, Sy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Menifield | 27c | 4,334$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,166.74 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Sy | 70c | 4,133$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.07 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Menifield | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Menifield | 16c | 2,451$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.85 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Menifield | 43c | 2,120$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Menifield | 32c | 2,050$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Menifield | 69c | 1,572$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.31 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Menifield | 14c | 1,500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Menifield | 15c | 1,264$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Menifield | 15c | 1,165$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Menifield | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Menifield | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…fd9fbacked Sy | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Menifield | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.99 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Sy | 61c | 929.05$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.02 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Menifield | 13c | 820.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Menifield | 15c | 600$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Menifield | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Menifield | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Sy | 63c | 435.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Menifield | 32c | 416.67$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.67 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Sy | 73c | 387.82$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.11 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Menifield | 29c | 312.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Menifield | 14c | 310$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.6 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Sy | 49c | 301.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Menifield | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Menifield | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.98 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Menifield | 37c | 223.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Menifield | 30c | 212.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Menifield | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Menifield | 14c | 184.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…3414backed Sy | 70c | 162.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Menifield | 13c | 160$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Menifield | 13c | 152.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Menifield | 12c | 139.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Menifield | 18c | 116.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Menifield | 14c | 104.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Menifield | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Menifield | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Menifield | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Menifield | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Sy | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…68dfbacked Menifield | 17c | 80.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…828fbacked Menifield | 19c | 79.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Menifield | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Sy | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Sy | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. Sythis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.