UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. Brundage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bfb82c96251d0a377b714752605aad648082bd41006beb3c39038c839ed6d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Abdul-Malikof Abdul-Malik, Brundage
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Brundage | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Brundage | 4c | 7,300$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Brundage | 2c | 6,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Brundage | 12c | 2,736$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.98 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Brundage | 10c | 2,631$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.11 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Brundage | 14c | 2,575$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.35 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Brundage | 13c | 2,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Brundage | 2c | 2,481$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Brundage | 3c | 2,286$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Brundage | 18c | 2,154$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.69 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Brundage | 11c | 1,500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Brundage | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Brundage | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Brundage | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Brundage | 13c | 982.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Brundage | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Brundage | 12c | 489.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…13abbacked Brundage | 3c | 462.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Brundage | 13c | 451.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Brundage | 14c | 420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Brundage | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Brundage | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Brundage | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Brundage | 11c | 253.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Brundage | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Brundage | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Brundage | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Brundage | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Brundage | 14c | 151.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Brundage | 12c | 146.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Brundage | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Brundage | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Brundage | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…828fbacked Brundage | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Brundage | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Brundage | 22c | 92.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…68dfbacked Brundage | 17c | 88.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Brundage | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Brundage | 13c | 79.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Brundage | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Brundage | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Brundage | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. Brundagethis page
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.