UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. Ochoa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd248738b547b71c403d5e73a6b0fdcba00ecc875561a92c2985293962de7afaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ochoaof Durden, Ochoa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x346d…828fbacked Durden | 0c | 7,026$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Durden | 35c | 3,314$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.12 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Durden | 4c | 2,257$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ochoa | 67c | 1,490$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.59 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Durden | 11c | 1,450$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Ochoa | 66c | 1,400$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.49 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ochoa | 65c | 1,125$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.73 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Durden | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Ochoa | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…f000backed Durden | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Durden | 32c | 812.87$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.02 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ochoa | 67c | 800$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Ochoa | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ochoa | 65c | 676.03$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.61 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ochoa | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Durden | 33c | 599.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Durden | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Durden | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Ochoa | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Durden | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Durden | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Durden | 29c | 258.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Durden | 40c | 250.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Durden | 34c | 250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Ochoa | 60c | 216.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Ochoa | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Ochoa | 67c | 182.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Durden | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Ochoa | 66c | 166.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Ochoa | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Durden | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Durden | 34c | 145.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Durden | 34c | 116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Durden | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Durden | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Durden | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Durden | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Ochoa | 66c | 53.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Durden | 34c | 53.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Durden | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ochoa | 64c | 40.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Ochoa | 68c | 33.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Ochoa | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked Ochoa | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Ochoa | 66c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Ochoa | 67c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. Ochoathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.