UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. Moutinho
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc03007d7ee2c0b22d71e437733401c7ab98946c7e911f2b8381ebce476dcb5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wellmakerof Wellmaker, Moutinho
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Moutinho | 7c | 16,150$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.53 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Moutinho | 8c | 4,138$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.06 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Moutinho | 8c | 3,410$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.4 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Moutinho | 7c | 2,206$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Moutinho | 6c | 2,020$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Moutinho | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Moutinho | 10c | 833.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Moutinho | 7c | 827$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Moutinho | 7c | 585$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Moutinho | 8c | 440$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Moutinho | 8c | 325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Moutinho | 7c | 321$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Moutinho | 9c | 286.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Moutinho | 46c | 274.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Moutinho | 9c | 268.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b07cbacked Moutinho | 8c | 265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Moutinho | 9c | 187.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Moutinho | 7c | 174.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Moutinho | 8c | 168.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Moutinho | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Moutinho | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Wellmaker | 22c | 98.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Wellmaker | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…c57fbacked Wellmaker | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Wellmaker | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. Moutinhothis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.