UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. Demopoulos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226aa6c0b0aece4bd1d32595eaa5c401bf2f235f909a3a266d2a9d53bc6ae198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Horthof Horth, Demopoulos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 5 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Demopoulos | 14c | 3,423$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.44 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Demopoulos | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Demopoulos | 16c | 2,233$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.24 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Demopoulos | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Demopoulos | 17c | 869$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. Demopoulosthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.