UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. Loosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a993f76fc661afbae4d8bc39b32e1cf9b8a054b0f66b617c3037a8a3fa75560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roweof Rowe, Loosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Loosa | 56c | 11,458$6,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,416.51 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…d716backed Rowe | 44c | 11,374$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,373.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Rowe | 45c | 10,298$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,672.84 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Loosa | 63c | 6,471$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.89 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Loosa | 62c | 3,350$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Loosa | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Rowe | 40c | 2,495$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.86 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Loosa | 60c | 2,417$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.28 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rowe | 34c | 2,059$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.82 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Loosa | 61c | 1,630$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Rowe | 38c | 1,320$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.4 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Rowe | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Loosa | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Loosa | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Rowe | 5c | 988$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.56 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Rowe | 43c | 951.76$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.5 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rowe | 36c | 704.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.2 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rowe | 40c | 701$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.6 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Loosa | 63c | 700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Rowe | 43c | 700$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Loosa | 76c | 663$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.82 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Loosa | 65c | 649.23$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.68 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Rowe | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Rowe | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Rowe | 35c | 373.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…239fbacked Rowe | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Rowe | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Rowe | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Rowe | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Rowe | 42c | 249.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.49 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Rowe | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Rowe | 35c | 175$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rowe | 37c | 162.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Rowe | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Rowe | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Rowe | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rowe | 41c | 96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Rowe | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Loosa | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Rowe | 30c | 61.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Rowe | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…bc27backed Rowe | 24c | 46.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Rowe | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Loosa | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Loosa | 62c | 38.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Loosa | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed Loosa | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rowe | 41c | 27.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked Loosa | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…76b1backed Loosa | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. Loosathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman Simon won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.