UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c6413e843cb4ed0b66cfcbec400d73a224ee006069ea3180b66870d414c18a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Simonof Simon, Smotherman
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Smotherman | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Smotherman | 22c | 5,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Simon | 80c | 4,700$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Smotherman | 1c | 2,234$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Simon | 78c | 2,079$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.22 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Simon | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Smotherman | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Smotherman | 3c | 1,510$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Smotherman | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Simon | 79c | 1,391$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.14 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Simon | 78c | 1,352$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.44 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Simon | 79c | 1,292$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.34 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Smotherman | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Simon | 79c | 854.55$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Smotherman | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Simon | 78c | 136.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Simon | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Simon | 77c | 94.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Simon | 79c | 62.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…bc27backed Simon | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Simon vs. Smotherman this page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Malik vs. BrundageAbdul-Malik won
- UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeeChiesa won
- UFC Fight Night: Durden vs. OchoaOchoa won
- UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. BarcelosBarcelos won
- UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. DemopoulosHorth won
- UFC Fight Night: Menifield vs. SyMenifield won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. MaverickNamajunas won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. LoosaRowe won
- UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. PetroskiShahbazyan won
- UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. BuckleyUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs. MoutinhoWellmaker won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.