TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No79c17,828$14,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.5451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes62c9,300$5,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,788.4220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No57c6,990$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.284445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No70c5,126$3,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.981838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes29c3,899$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.252119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes15c3,163$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.198844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes11c2,298$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.844922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa4d6…b805backed Yes1c2,244$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004a…8769backed Yes1c2,144$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202045%9 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked No73c2,060$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No74c1,997$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.9116537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd925…f36fbacked Yes27c1,950$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186f…b135backed Yes46c1,934$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x809b…ded1backed Yes46c1,934$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes37c1,841$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.768220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked Yes51c1,783$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.661258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Yes61c1,627$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No29c1,400$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9883250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes38c1,375$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2237740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes40c1,245$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes30c1,136$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.7740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00b5…536bbacked No49c1,050$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f1…9eefbacked Yes51c1,050$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c3…454ebacked Yes51c1,050$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb8…ef59backed No49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf48e…861fbacked Yes54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e7…a111backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88de…bce5backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…0c27backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e5…80d0backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff4…f082backed No46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4590…831dbacked No46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e56…6656backed No52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9954…fc8bbacked Yes54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff84…e50dbacked No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…0e1ebacked No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b2f…37b3backed Yes55c999.9$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc983…941abacked No55c968$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd996…b6c6backed No55c968$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd55a…7a32backed No53c966$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b102backed No53c966$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes51c950$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes30c883.45$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0413850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…34d2backed Yes46c787.01$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes45c764.16$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.576440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No54c731.88$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.671464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+51.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c730.68$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes44c724.47$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No46c717.37$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c569.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.3877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6693…56f0backed No54c550$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes49c546$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.831533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed No74c537$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a96…903abacked Yes19c522.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3f…b61cbacked Yes30c520$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes28c518.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.08567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes39c507.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes29c500$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.497035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No68c465$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.135743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes38c462.54$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.861520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff6…cc6fbacked No73c457.84$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.02742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…0beebacked No54c450$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes40c450$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes46c440.89$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.826254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No50c408.46$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.847051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23611559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc0…9b77backed No21c400$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed No74c370.92$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.442227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe318…3ffabacked Yes58c367.26$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b8e…df64backed No53c362.89$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes33c361.65$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.857230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed No66c357.5$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.594955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…f11fbacked No73c333$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes45c314.63$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5812744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No35c307.59$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.952536%9 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2105…81a9backed Yes24c290$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes51c286.06$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.737940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506450%32 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes20c263.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.412458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c249.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed No71c247.05$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.824355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked No67c238.81$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.893732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes48c232.04$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5428427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…ebe0backed No28c223.56$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…ac3abacked No76c222.39$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed No29c218$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.191145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes34c214.47$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…abc3backed No54c212.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x989b…2d2fbacked Yes24c210$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26f…bc7cbacked No75c210$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cef…9b6fbacked No76c210$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes32c204.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes43c204.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.415743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd942…47f3backed Yes27c204.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5628750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bd…5f76backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x047b…d6f7backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6104…6e56backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.