Us Politics · resolved market
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e89d91cff090ce6696df4658a0c573fca0b878dd9685349b7c7f50507623e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 19c | 31,631$5,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,904.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…45eebacked No | 19c | 23,379$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,552.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…5b3ebacked No | 34c | 19,826$6,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,656.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 71c | 16,968$12,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,868.51 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 10,343$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.38 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 76c | 9,983$7,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.89 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 23c | 9,209$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 70c | 8,532$5,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.04 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 21c | 7,929$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.78 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 79c | 6,678$5,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 64c | 5,446$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.98 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 12c | 5,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 74c | 4,574$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.55 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…4f1ebacked No | 27c | 3,768$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…5488backed No | 47c | 3,564$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 15c | 3,550$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.47 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 53c | 3,484$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.43 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 75c | 3,450$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.64 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 24c | 2,987$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…7c50backed Yes | 75c | 2,842$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 32c | 2,700$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.39 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed No | 20c | 2,619$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed No | 27c | 2,616$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 30c | 2,569$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 72c | 2,442$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.69 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…a1c5backed No | 26c | 2,414$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…d86ebacked Yes | 61c | 2,278$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed No | 5c | 2,015$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…75f4backed No | 21c | 1,932$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked No | 25c | 1,911$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 22c | 1,879$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.11 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 8c | 1,874$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 71c | 1,843$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.34 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…7bf2backed No | 30c | 1,788$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 1,736$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.35 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 7c | 1,714$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…e8a7backed No | 2c | 1,687$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…e69abacked No | 18c | 1,622$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 26c | 1,616$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.49 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,610$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.96 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 31c | 1,600$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.07 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 11c | 1,575$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 80c | 1,510$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.16 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 34c | 1,505$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 21c | 1,480$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,427$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,424$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 1,319$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,308$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…2db5backed No | 17c | 1,303$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 38c | 1,273$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed No | 42c | 1,242$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 33c | 1,231$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…4b18backed Yes | 62c | 1,207$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 29c | 1,197$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.02 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 23c | 1,039$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 24c | 1,026$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 17c | 1,010$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed No | 22c | 1,000$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 33c | 991$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9421…c375backed No | 36c | 985.79$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 79c | 973.97$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed No | 23c | 930$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked No | 16c | 925.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 77c | 911.51$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…3ff7backed No | 25c | 891.84$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked No | 23c | 886.97$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 75c | 836.66$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 48c | 803.75$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 78c | 781.25$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 22c | 734.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked No | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed No | 30c | 665.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 73c | 665.42$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 80c | 590.77$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 36c | 583.88$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed No | 20c | 579.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 23c | 560$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed No | 19c | 551.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…010bbacked Yes | 70c | 538.69$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 70c | 530.42$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…ffb0backed No | 21c | 518.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 73c | 508.98$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 70c | 502.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…e74dbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 69c | 499.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 24c | 494.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed No | 13c | 490$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 27c | 486.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4170…d0dcbacked No | 16c | 483.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…1a77backed No | 19c | 480.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed No | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd7…f8b3backed Yes | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 60c | 454.25$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.