TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$380,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$391,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,491 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd909…fd75backed No19c31,631$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,904.781145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f13…45eebacked No19c23,379$4,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9206…5b3ebacked No34c19,826$6,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,656.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes71c16,968$12,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.511752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No6c10,343$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.383859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0007740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes76c9,983$7,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.8916943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No23c9,209$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.751931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes70c8,532$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.047041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No21c7,929$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.784143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes79c6,678$5,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.652650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes64c5,446$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.982185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No12c5,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes74c4,574$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.552766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52015646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2541…4f1ebacked No27c3,768$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29da…5488backed No47c3,564$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No15c3,550$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.473033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes53c3,484$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.4311848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes75c3,450$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.6417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x163a…6388backed No24c2,987$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed Yes75c2,842$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No32c2,700$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.3911950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d41…bf90backed No20c2,619$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed No27c2,616$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.67140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed No30c2,569$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.71838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes72c2,442$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.697227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15a…a1c5backed No26c2,414$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5468…d86ebacked Yes61c2,278$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00dc…6ab8backed No5c2,015$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed No21c1,932$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked No25c1,911$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.911330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No22c1,879$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c1,874$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes71c1,843$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.3411940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2a4…7bf2backed No30c1,788$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.5933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No37c1,736$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.3514940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No7c1,714$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.983112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd3…e8a7backed No2c1,687$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06a…e69abacked No18c1,622$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed No26c1,616$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.492832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+130.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes68c1,610$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.964314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No31c1,600$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.0712619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No11c1,575$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.452352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes80c1,510$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8979…bcd6backed No34c1,505$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.491450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No21c1,480$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.536530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c1,427$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1711121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes71c1,424$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.921258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes61c1,319$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes70c1,308$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.561369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba9…2db5backed No17c1,303$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No38c1,273$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.95851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed No42c1,242$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.231020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No33c1,231$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff22…4b18backed Yes62c1,207$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No29c1,197$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.026838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No23c1,039$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.765437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed No24c1,026$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No17c1,010$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.73253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-64.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1545…e2b2backed No22c1,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.041520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a89…71adbacked No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes33c991$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9421…c375backed No36c985.79$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes79c973.97$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.211942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…f844backed No23c930$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a1…75bcbacked No16c925.72$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes77c911.51$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.653135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…3ff7backed No25c891.84$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked No23c886.97$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes75c836.66$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.32313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No48c803.75$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.045756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes78c781.25$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.021145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked No22c734.5$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.422842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked No14c700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff21…f489backed No30c665.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes73c665.42$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.82737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes80c590.77$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.773050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No36c583.88$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No20c579.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No23c560$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.64139%16 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…2882backed No19c551.96$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdef…010bbacked Yes70c538.69$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes70c530.42$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.553435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8668…ffb0backed No21c518.73$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+137.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes73c508.98$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4213540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes70c502.44$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.441040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc609…e74dbacked Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes69c499.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1557254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked No24c494.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.732040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98f5…7226backed No13c490$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.750%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No27c486.74$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.426033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4170…d0dcbacked No16c483.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaf…1a77backed No19c480.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed No21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd7…f8b3backed Yes65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes60c454.25$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.72236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.