TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$294,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5c5…a736backed No20c22,000$4,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,49610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No14c19,261$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No11c15,135$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.117247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No2c12,384$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.145743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes78c10,214$8,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.3310639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No13c9,689$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.728220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b7c…74c2backed No47c8,536$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No4c8,461$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No7c7,858$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.222321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No24c6,000$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.9510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No6c5,432$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.229234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No19c5,293$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.94940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd21c…4ccabacked No10c5,101$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No20c4,888$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.44229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed No10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No13c3,769$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.343141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c2…adc5backed No16c3,735$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No3c3,443$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9113033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c3,306$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No7c3,109$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x712a…f8a8backed No13c3,107$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0d…546fbacked No33c2,435$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No17c2,322$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.973557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes74c2,143$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.9736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No19c2,020$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb62…1d05backed No25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf203…c9cfbacked No12c1,843$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked No16c1,763$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes74c1,700$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.547035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No7c1,600$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No7c1,137$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.173154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No13c1,098$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.334922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a2…4639backed No10c953.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…4c84backed No12c813.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb1…87c7backed No8c810.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No19c809.04$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.778515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked No19c802.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…b694backed No25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No10c794.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.64387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29ef…e136backed No23c764$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698f…dcbdbacked No23c655.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed No21c638.15$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.11957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed No9c627.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.777940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a63…be7bbacked No35c608.3$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff6…83b3backed No8c592.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab9…e2f0backed No21c587.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e5…3a68backed No23c570.1$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.831136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed Yes70c550$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-90.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes64c535.76$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.81966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+76.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes79c533.21$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.791450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked No7c516.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.041942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No36c508.11$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.121643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked No10c500$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc786…d82ebacked No11c500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No27c493.29$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.132941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed No41c492.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No27c458.69$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.062725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No6c454.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.052231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819c…14ffbacked No45c447.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b79…31edbacked No25c416.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No32c385.58$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.273855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e61…60a0backed No14c383.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e72…e7cabacked No10c380$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.511546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No30c361.48$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.162454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes69c349.99$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10842738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes55c345$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.93324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x247b…9128backed No29c341.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534e…ed88backed No9c337.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c1…b7d6backed No10c334.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20f…0c5ebacked No52c319.93$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…aca8backed No16c302.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…6358backed No20c301.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed No15c300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d4b6backed No21c280.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c268.96$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No12c268.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf59…6b27backed No19c268.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No11c261.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be2…962abacked Yes77c258.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…06cfbacked No63c256.27$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaa…34babacked No51c236.46$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa1…6594backed No13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No44c227.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914c…e766backed No25c222$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No25c220.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf2…9621backed No9c219.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.37per pick26cpaid+115.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b39…cf2fbacked Yes73c216$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.41827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc626…4253backed Yes78c210.02$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.331631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e11…c72cbacked No26c208$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e99…9206backed No11c202.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.741040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No7c201.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.672020%4 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9b2…d8e6backed No21c200.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf2…70f3backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bb…2c25backed No26c193.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No19c185.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8960…93fbbacked No11c169.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…68b0backed No18c167.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.