Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Putin talk by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222142be390e84081a5ac000f027a694834445648ce518abcf522348c6e2ff26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 8,074$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,373$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.89 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 20c | 1,316$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,297$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 1,252$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 19c | 1,111$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…f1c7backed Yes | 6c | 871.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 11c | 834.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 825.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 9c | 599$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 79c | 519.41$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 517.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 74c | 500$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 76c | 412.56$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked No | 77c | 411.2$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 399.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…1079backed Yes | 8c | 397.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 372.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 79c | 342.75$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 16c | 333$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 318.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 26c | 312$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 73c | 297.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 80c | 275.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 11c | 257.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 10c | 239.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 222.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 78c | 196.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 194.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 73c | 181$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 25c | 162.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 27c | 149.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 140.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 8c | 136.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 12c | 125.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 78c | 100.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 72c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2a54backed Yes | 24c | 84.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…413abacked No | 75c | 79.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6b7fbacked No | 79c | 62.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…f34abacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cde…67d0backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…b14cbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fcfdbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 75c | 48.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 23c | 45.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked No | 79c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…4454backed No | 79c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…f968backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…3cafbacked No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7ab8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…f779backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…20a6backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 75c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.