Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon Musk be out as Head of DOGE in Trump's first 100 days?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb301eace395d6899a24a460f01c98b06ee7a39ad2377b36e8ff0bfb69b35c8

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $174,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $151,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa7ca…9d85backed No	0c	53,100$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	33cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No	0c	31,111$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	+5.9wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdeef…e421backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	66c	7,988$5,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,748.17	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	56c	6,082$3,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,692.78	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No	57c	5,045$2,892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,892.31	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No	56c	5,000$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,799.99	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+13.0wins	+0.11per pick	37cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0b8…13a2backed No	28c	4,610$1,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,287.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes	11c	3,041$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,715.45	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No	57c	3,001$1,711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,710.64	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No	31c	3,000$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes	72c	2,497$1,807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.03	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	73cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked No	32c	2,313$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.39	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No	28c	2,095$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.07	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked No	63c	1,649$1,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,044.23	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes	50c	1,585$786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$798.94	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9121…a6aabacked No	66c	1,541$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	12c	1,462$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284.51	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No	33c	1,378$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	47cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes	73c	1,292$937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.88	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	45c	1,100$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.05	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No	45c	1,086$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.58	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes	14c	1,050$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$904	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+22.8wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+56%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes	20c	1,038$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.7	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c59…7259backed No	2c	1,034$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No	59c	1,027$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.08	174	52.9%92 W · 82 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	62c	1,000$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed No	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes	33c	1,000$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$671.71	95	57.9%55 W · 40 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No	78c	912.77$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.31	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	53c	786.03$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.59	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes	7c	758.63$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705.53	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes	71c	750$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.5	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes	19c	678$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$549.92	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6816…b693backed Yes	69c	672.27$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.76	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.8wins	-0.21per pick	60cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes	45c	667.31$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367.31	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f42…2af2backed Yes	53c	664.72$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.39	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.21per pick	42cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes	72c	645$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.4	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b2…2102backed Yes	45c	592.15$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked Yes	43c	586.42$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.73	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes	48c	578$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.64	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	71c	550$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	18c	530$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.86	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed No	40c	524.97$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.1	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	58cpaid	-46%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef05…3dffbacked Yes	38c	500$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.85	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+164.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes	73c	443.04$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.87	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes	23c	398$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.64	141	35.5%50 W · 91 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c7e…5ce1backed No	27c	385$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes	79c	381.3$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.3	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes	29c	333.46$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.26	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes	12c	330.27$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.59	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	38cpaid	+70.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Yes	58c	312$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.52	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed Yes	43c	300$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	10c	292$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.42	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes	33c	285.98$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.28	73	38.4%28 W · 45 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	43c	282.1$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.52	170	21.2%36 W · 134 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	59c	250$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.82	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes	43c	234.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.49	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed Yes	9c	230.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.56	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+130.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes	47c	200$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.8	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee7…ee01backed No	58c	170.31$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ee…8836backed Yes	67c	150$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes	47c	139.88$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.58	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc813…49acbacked No	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes	76c	128.24$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.24	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-63%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	51c	126.63$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.59	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db8…6935backed No	25c	120.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd2…c15bbacked No	21c	120.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No	59c	120$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.26	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.83	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42cb…9c8bbacked No	24c	114.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No	65c	100.44$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.09	75	62.7%47 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	62	29%18 W · 44 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	37cpaid	+72.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed No	51c	99.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed Yes	44c	97$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.98	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b0b…cac4backed No	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…2866backed No	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ca…1f54backed No	39c	85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.75	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.23per pick	30cpaid	-90.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No	62c	80.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	148	43.2%64 W · 84 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No	57c	80$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes	76c	74.99$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0943…4a2fbacked Yes	55c	74.51$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.27	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d02…b35cbacked No	56c	71.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9059…4f5bbacked Yes	47c	67.76$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.76	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+89.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No	78c	60$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	56c	59.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.29	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59c…e1edbacked Yes	43c	59.16$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.58	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…68d9backed No	27c	54.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd8…15c9backed No	72c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed No	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	98	10.2%10 W · 88 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3db2…ec33backed Yes	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f80…ea2dbacked No	64c	39.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+94.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f7…8569backed No	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+62%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	49c	26.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Yes	47c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd422…b0acbacked Yes	47c	21.53$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.41	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…4d83backed No	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk be out as Head of DOGE in Trump's first 100 days?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event