Us Politics · resolved market
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb4116e37b4c157b394c2759bbca0bbbd69d64891ee1290f7008e0f9dcf6174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac3…f3b0backed Yes | 3c | 48,600$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 11,323$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…a0e4backed Yes | 10c | 2,932$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,687$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 10c | 1,275$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,012$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…8c03backed Yes | 3c | 870.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 842$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 701.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 589.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 4c | 253.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's first 100 days?this page
- Will Elise Stefanik be out as Ambassador to the United Nations in Trump's first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be out as Head of DOGE in Trump's first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Pamela Bondi be out as Attorney General in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Services in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first 100 days?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trump's first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.