Middle East · resolved market
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa878d4d9d33570431c88195318461c708a2734a51facfd515fceddce8739cc45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,307,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,237,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,307,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 16c | 46,969$7,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,529.02 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 36c | 42,500$15,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,180.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 32c | 26,740$8,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,505.15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 3c | 25,767$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 0c | 25,618$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed Yes | 75c | 21,283$15,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,332.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 19,743$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.09 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 13c | 17,581$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.42 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 20c | 17,257$3,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,416.25 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 0c | 16,878$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Yes | 61c | 16,141$9,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,349.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed No | 0c | 15,625$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 6c | 14,558$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 18c | 12,823$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed No | 5c | 12,664$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.02 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 0c | 12,122$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea35…90eabacked No | 1c | 11,943$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 2c | 11,861$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.18 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 10c | 11,755$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.78 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 79c | 10,651$8,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.56 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 66c | 10,451$6,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…9545backed Yes | 60c | 10,032$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,031.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…67fcbacked No | 2c | 9,460$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 76c | 9,328$7,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed No | 12c | 8,804$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed No | 1c | 8,200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…70b8backed No | 0c | 7,441$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked No | 17c | 7,025$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 23c | 6,921$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.87 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 2c | 6,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 44c | 6,070$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.38 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed Yes | 43c | 5,936$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,368.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked No | 11c | 5,806$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 15c | 5,298$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.89 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…3f75backed No | 3c | 5,172$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 13c | 4,448$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 12c | 4,423$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.26 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9674…72b6backed No | 1c | 4,420$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 74c | 4,419$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…6993backed No | 4c | 4,339$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 65c | 4,331$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked No | 1c | 4,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…94e3backed No | 13c | 4,143$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 29c | 3,968$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked No | 62c | 3,794$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 73c | 3,660$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.49 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed No | 12c | 3,438$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 72c | 3,113$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.2 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.48 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 10c | 2,916$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.98 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 45c | 2,816$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked No | 4c | 2,800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 76c | 2,752$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 66c | 2,651$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 70c | 2,637$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…8e58backed No | 18c | 2,614$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed Yes | 76c | 2,519$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…31fcbacked No | 3c | 2,518$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…c958backed No | 1c | 2,483$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…a885backed Yes | 62c | 2,450$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 12c | 2,320$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa339…69f3backed No | 16c | 2,222$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf3…794abacked No | 1c | 2,117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 29c | 2,016$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.85 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…de4dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 15c | 1,998$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.69 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 2c | 1,994$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 1,888$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.56 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 11c | 1,855$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…34c8backed Yes | 55c | 1,813$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 13c | 1,800$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed No | 13c | 1,790$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 16c | 1,774$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 8c | 1,684$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 11c | 1,600$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…302bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,599$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.66 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 76c | 1,577$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…a663backed No | 26c | 1,550$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 20c | 1,550$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.79 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,548$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 3c | 1,543$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 23c | 1,527$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 21c | 1,514$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.23 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed No | 7c | 1,481$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 80c | 1,478$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.08 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 34c | 1,478$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…3dd5backed Yes | 70c | 1,432$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82a8…79fcbacked No | 71c | 1,417$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 25c | 1,389$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.97 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfd…9cf1backed No | 14c | 1,380$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…4899backed No | 15c | 1,378$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…7806backed No | 15c | 1,366$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 60c | 1,299$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 78c | 1,279$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…2079backed Yes | 78c | 1,245$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked No | 8c | 1,219$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…ee8abacked No | 1c | 1,215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 10c | 1,199$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed No | 46c | 1,194$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.