Weather · resolved market
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94aa7a2a4106356c803c6955c5eb46152cd58c372b843ce02a8db0239dd74a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $569,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed No | 1c | 30,620$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.13 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed No | 2c | 29,194$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…eb88backed No | 1c | 15,429$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed No | 2c | 10,953$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd853…fb3abacked No | 2c | 10,733$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 8,500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed No | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 55c | 5,252$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.67 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed No | 2c | 4,896$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 7c | 4,800$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 63c | 4,569$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…a955backed No | 4c | 3,325$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 19c | 2,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 66c | 2,380$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 40c | 2,267$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 3c | 2,155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 33c | 2,100$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 10c | 1,913$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 1,672$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712b…b72dbacked No | 4c | 1,539$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 1c | 1,505$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed No | 5c | 1,501$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 9c | 1,456$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…02a3backed No | 2c | 1,203$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 25c | 1,185$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 77c | 1,172$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 75c | 999$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 71c | 959.15$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 56c | 899.98$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.99 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 35c | 742.37$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 590.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…6581backed No | 4c | 572.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 24c | 563.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 51c | 540$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 55c | 532.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.85 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 8c | 530$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd122…fda9backed No | 3c | 505.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 71c | 464.36$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed No | 22c | 450$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3026…65b4backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…da2cbacked No | 27c | 386.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…d0f4backed No | 4c | 385.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…8750backed No | 13c | 377.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 338.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 62c | 301$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 3c | 292.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…b124backed No | 4c | 276.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 36c | 272.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 266.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 19c | 263.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…9c58backed No | 9c | 234.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…dfaebacked No | 5c | 223.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…f5d6backed No | 5c | 208.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 26c | 189.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…5f27backed No | 12c | 165.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed No | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…8598backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked No | 30c | 117.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c34…54a6backed No | 30c | 104.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…0fdcbacked Yes | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed No | 41c | 100.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…c361backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…7fb5backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…71dbbacked No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…130fbacked Yes | 71c | 86.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 67c | 78.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…d172backed Yes | 71c | 71.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 64c | 57.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaee…e9f1backed No | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e0…f1aabacked Yes | 71c | 54.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…19a7backed Yes | 71c | 49.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…102dbacked Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 65c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…f685backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…2bb1backed Yes | 78c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?this page
- Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.