Weather · resolved market
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43905da101b102a1867fcb36b15b41b29282b568202f079152933e021cc2b8cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,466,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,111,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,466,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0594…36b2backed Yes | 0c | 1,313,702$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c2…6649backed Yes | 0c | 1,169,963$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…f448backed Yes | 0c | 1,108,290$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…8d7bbacked Yes | 0c | 67,724$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…245abacked Yes | 0c | 66,806$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 44,054$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 43,817$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 33,013$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 0c | 30,143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 2c | 20,094$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…fe1abacked Yes | 1c | 17,327$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,099$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,803$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 8c | 10,302$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.86 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…eacdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ac7dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 9,961$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…15a3backed Yes | 0c | 9,639$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…7d46backed Yes | 0c | 7,297$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…0b88backed Yes | 0c | 6,806$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…a92dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,875$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…5107backed Yes | 0c | 5,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…a9b3backed Yes | 0c | 5,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cff2backed Yes | 0c | 5,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de3…c449backed Yes | 0c | 4,826$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 4,628$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 0c | 4,615$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 0c | 4,240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 2c | 4,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…5310backed Yes | 0c | 3,978$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…b75bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,763$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…b0a7backed Yes | 0c | 3,760$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…5117backed Yes | 0c | 3,757$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…15b6backed Yes | 0c | 3,757$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…a841backed Yes | 0c | 3,753$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…dfe4backed Yes | 0c | 3,753$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…f298backed Yes | 0c | 3,753$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…7deebacked Yes | 0c | 3,707$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 3,672$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…7ef8backed Yes | 0c | 3,543$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…9573backed Yes | 0c | 3,523$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…5a51backed Yes | 0c | 3,453$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…0e08backed Yes | 0c | 3,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…6390backed Yes | 0c | 3,346$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…ac0bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…bbddbacked Yes | 0c | 3,307$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…7349backed Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…f6cebacked Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…3623backed Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…b806backed Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…0ac2backed Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf895…8125backed Yes | 0c | 3,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…2d88backed Yes | 0c | 3,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…8ff7backed Yes | 0c | 3,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…cde6backed Yes | 0c | 3,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…85a1backed Yes | 0c | 3,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdf…8a6abacked Yes | 0c | 3,298$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb384…24ddbacked Yes | 0c | 3,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…ec13backed Yes | 0c | 3,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa350…79eabacked Yes | 0c | 3,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f3…e84cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,289$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9984…d354backed Yes | 0c | 3,283$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa944…931fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…7d65backed Yes | 0c | 3,274$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 2,810$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…5e0dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,507$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3965…7e67backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,418$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…7a88backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 5c | 2,261$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,116$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 1c | 1,730$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 1,576$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…02a3backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5512…5941backed Yes | 1c | 1,393$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 2c | 1,154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 1,048$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf761…c8aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 1c | 987.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 20c | 875.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…644dbacked Yes | 3c | 865.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…b841backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…ed60backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 2c | 722.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…0e71backed Yes | 2c | 507.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 27c | 500.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 26c | 440$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 15c | 123.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +252.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 74c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?this page
- Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?Yes won
- Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.