Weather · resolved market
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a920cf5afde2c3c2488e18c028d938d054e420e05b5516e30c6c64de0f1247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,851,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,812,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,851,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 44,450$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 38,592$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 3c | 21,479$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.68 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 1c | 17,573$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d7…12f4backed Yes | 3c | 17,211$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…ae99backed Yes | 0c | 11,911$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,336$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 2c | 10,468$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe2…42c9backed Yes | 0c | 10,355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…ed2abacked Yes | 0c | 10,090$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…668ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,045$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…2069backed Yes | 0c | 9,080$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5798…e4efbacked Yes | 0c | 8,791$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…2f6dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,678$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…01cabacked Yes | 0c | 8,066$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…2a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,947$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 7,907$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…069abacked Yes | 0c | 7,812$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…83b6backed Yes | 0c | 7,561$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…1fa9backed Yes | 0c | 7,430$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…0ce2backed Yes | 0c | 6,724$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…5bb1backed Yes | 0c | 6,509$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad38…73ccbacked Yes | 0c | 5,826$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 5,567$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…ecbfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,402$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…0edabacked Yes | 0c | 5,395$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…4484backed Yes | 0c | 5,355$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…7bdbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,355$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…9da8backed Yes | 0c | 5,321$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188f…752ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 5,235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…872fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…64c9backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fe…91ddbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…a6dabacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8062…4baebacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…023abacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…7e8abacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7d…7669backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…2f65backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf320…aa57backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e38cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…71adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…a415backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5b…b76dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…a3d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…002fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…4ceabacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe9…0290backed Yes | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb48…d582backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…adb1backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…d5a5backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…b846backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…780cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…d03fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…b8bfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…300cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a39…1137backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…11a0backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b2d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…c75ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37da…8f21backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…fe62backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…53b8backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9114…8852backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…e4b8backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aee…64d1backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b80cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…faa4backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…5e7abacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…8c23backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875a…0d9dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e03…e0b2backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…f8d3backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8161…ab08backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…1d1abacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…4f20backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a38…ece1backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…4c38backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…2af3backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…6c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…177cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…2961backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…12d1backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…3e12backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…394abacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…7a16backed Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…f40fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…38c0backed Yes | 0c | 5,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…f78abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd884…9d5ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,257$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c8…6226backed Yes | 0c | 4,057$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…ed60backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…644dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,918$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…0b96backed Yes | 0c | 3,898$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 1c | 3,737$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?this page
- Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?Yes won
- Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.