Weather · resolved market
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32755657561c75af11b8179b5038532e043bcc4fc43aad41bef843e2474e04eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $939,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $978,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $939,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 47,567$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996.33 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 2c | 38,856$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.48 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 35,060$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…1fb5backed Yes | 1c | 20,097$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,498$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 2c | 17,922$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 17,262$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.17 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 11c | 15,946$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.51 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137c…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 15,120$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…9ed3backed Yes | 4c | 12,060$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 11,370$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…eb88backed Yes | 1c | 11,204$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 3c | 10,356$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ac7dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 8,961$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 8,687$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…5098backed Yes | 2c | 8,301$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 7,519$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…5e0dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,419$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbee…e8b5backed Yes | 4c | 7,302$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 3c | 7,239$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…a707backed Yes | 1c | 6,136$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,039$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 3c | 5,330$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed Yes | 2c | 4,730$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,472$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…8750backed Yes | 5c | 3,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…5f21backed Yes | 3c | 3,770$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 11c | 3,696$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ceacbacked Yes | 2c | 3,532$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…da2cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,269$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 8c | 3,185$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.36 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 2c | 2,994$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…3b32backed Yes | 1c | 2,951$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 0c | 2,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 1c | 2,765$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…d0f4backed Yes | 2c | 2,650$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 6c | 2,517$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5512…5941backed Yes | 5c | 2,338$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 2c | 2,325$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Yes | 2c | 2,189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 13c | 2,173$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.09 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,114$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…5aa2backed Yes | 2c | 2,050$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 12c | 1,853$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf867…e48cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,683$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 2c | 1,605$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de3…c449backed Yes | 2c | 1,594$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8facbacked Yes | 8c | 1,563$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,549$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…0867backed Yes | 1c | 1,482$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 13c | 1,472$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…2125backed Yes | 1c | 1,458$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d20…515bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 4c | 1,408$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 11c | 1,376$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…630dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,278$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…005fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,241$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31e…172ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9918…d0f8backed Yes | 13c | 1,152$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…3269backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 63c | 999$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 22c | 990$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 987.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…dfaebacked Yes | 2c | 908.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…eaabbacked Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…f800backed Yes | 6c | 894.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…5ee8backed Yes | 2c | 893.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…8a2dbacked Yes | 2c | 883.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 6c | 878.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…3b9ebacked Yes | 4c | 851.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ef…f0f7backed Yes | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…8d88backed Yes | 6c | 819.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…dc29backed Yes | 5c | 789.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 2c | 750.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…3e5bbacked Yes | 2c | 750.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…ee73backed Yes | 2c | 727.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…706cbacked Yes | 7c | 714.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…1b34backed Yes | 2c | 706$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 5c | 699.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…b841backed Yes | 8c | 638.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…3d7ebacked Yes | 8c | 630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…c361backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…24e6backed Yes | 5c | 614.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 614.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…5cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 606.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9c…f335backed Yes | 6c | 602$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…e4eebacked Yes | 6c | 593.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…6581backed Yes | 3c | 578.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 2c | 575.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?this page
- Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?Yes won
- Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.