Weather · resolved market
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5e47c2e972c8359159e83136275d5570e2339f0b6b05bd341146167b9420c81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,731,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,470,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,731,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 9c | 54,858$5,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,014.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 40,602$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 35,541$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 1c | 29,412$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ac7dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 18c | 15,792$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.3 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b64…825ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,046$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 1c | 9,999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 9,410$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…f5d6backed Yes | 1c | 6,784$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,364$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 6,287$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,227$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…3e88backed Yes | 0c | 5,802$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 1c | 5,650$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,572$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 5,056$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 4,811$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 5c | 4,408$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 12c | 4,084$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.09 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,960$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 3,790$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.54 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,648$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 9c | 3,267$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…630dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,061$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,945$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 2,875$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 4c | 2,714$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 77c | 2,569$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.36 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…5d5dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 21c | 2,324$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…ec79backed Yes | 1c | 1,785$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,765$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,696$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…5e0dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,642$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 6c | 1,597$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,532$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,492$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.13 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de3…c449backed Yes | 1c | 1,447$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 62c | 1,377$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.06 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 70c | 1,280$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 30c | 1,198$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…da2cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,165$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,117$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 1c | 1,027$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 15c | 726.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…a9d7backed Yes | 3c | 687.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 17c | 593.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 63c | 560$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 559.59$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 2c | 545.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d20…515bbacked Yes | 10c | 515.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 15c | 459.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…5c56backed Yes | 2c | 452.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…4df1backed Yes | 22c | 451$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 79c | 450$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…5aa2backed Yes | 7c | 419.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…b124backed Yes | 3c | 385.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes | 5c | 374$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ce…b841backed Yes | 6c | 358.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 6c | 344.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…ed60backed Yes | 6c | 333.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 10c | 247.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed Yes | 22c | 223.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 221.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 37c | 211.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 188.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3026…65b4backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 37c | 149.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9918…d0f8backed Yes | 21c | 144.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…76c6backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…e4eebacked Yes | 12c | 102.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 16c | 86.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 63.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…062cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…af63backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?this page
- Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?Yes won
- Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?No won
- Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.