TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US out of WHO by Trump's first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf916…9224backed Yes72c14,098$10,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.014650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No31c11,597$3,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.674346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No46c4,541$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.3816725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes39c4,316$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.319426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No15c4,140$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.6114940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No62c2,510$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.8915155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No54c2,477$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.8523149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No41c2,097$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.5517544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes43c2,090$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.8923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No25c2,002$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes42c2,000$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.287646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No43c1,855$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.992846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeace…9477backed Yes58c1,739$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No57c977.7$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.293441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes41c771$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8910338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes41c770.51$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.114734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked Yes55c711.85$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No39c699.52$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3217225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No23c676.82$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.926634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed No26c635.37$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.094129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No38c600$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2272544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No34c514.04$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No18c509.24$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.416625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…0667backed No24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes39c410.25$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.48616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-57.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…35febacked Yes36c344.6$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed Yes30c328.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.713531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf261…ee8ebacked No67c303.04$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No40c290$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c222$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No38c211.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3516943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f7…8569backed No24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No65c205.5$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.261643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed93…e754backed No66c165.64$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.35431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes34c140$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.47825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2592…a74cbacked No62c128.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c71…14a4backed No24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c3…7524backed No24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52e…61e4backed Yes78c105$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+103.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0a…45c0backed Yes29c104$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa003…ebefbacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a7…84a8backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-37.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No33c98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.786137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea08…34f9backed Yes68c96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125f…3daebacked No23c94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…6ba7backed No70c93.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2631…a885backed Yes77c93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes80c87.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.958646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…0d0abacked No23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b6b…994dbacked No24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c78.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5025…b051backed Yes53c77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…f167backed No47c77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes50c76.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860a…2e92backed No23c72.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60aa…1a10backed Yes35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaae3…0888backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfab4…4c19backed No29c69.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+130.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9a…3441backed Yes77c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…001ebacked No36c64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…c392backed No22c64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f43…0ae8backed No19c62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5e…537abacked Yes53c62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb598…d81dbacked No47c62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No44c60.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9936527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9365…656ebacked No44c58.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No35c58.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6cd0backed No47c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5515…49c3backed Yes53c58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e5…095cbacked No45c58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5f…116cbacked No22c54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No23c53.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…6e42backed No23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+124.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes60c49.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8425241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc2…843bbacked No23c44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…ad26backed Yes77c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No55c43.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7312736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcbde…c3a6backed Yes55c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+104.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x022c…7a01backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c39.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.741,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0aa4…40a2backed No45c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c93…4087backed Yes41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc16…505bbacked No45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf99a…8c9fbacked Yes78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9b…a02dbacked Yes55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes38c33.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5975…9193backed Yes77c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad08…7b7ebacked Yes77c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.