Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on US military before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff35c2763368b4b81579c7b2e32dfd4a53902bd0b36c6d4ffa60df935b7977d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 7c | 31,895$2,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,186.56 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 0c | 15,078$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 5c | 10,260$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.17 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 11c | 9,635$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ed…7716backed Yes | 2c | 5,962$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 13c | 5,639$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…a26dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,263$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 14c | 4,175$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.75 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 8c | 4,173$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 3,973$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.97 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,758$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 12c | 3,259$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 8c | 3,043$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.61 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…70b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,919$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,745$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,590$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,514$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 2,382$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes | 10c | 2,346$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,558$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 7c | 1,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4297…8a8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…986bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,291$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 1,268$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 5c | 1,234$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…c1f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,154$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca11…6095backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8f…abb9backed Yes | 6c | 1,083$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 9c | 1,017$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 886.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…ef5abacked Yes | 10c | 790.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 8c | 766.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…9765backed Yes | 7c | 611.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 9c | 570$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccf…185bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…5be5backed Yes | 9c | 437.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…03a1backed Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…4b4bbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 11c | 301.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 256.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 220.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…2290backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926b…ac82backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…7528backed Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…350cbacked Yes | 10c | 120.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 13c | 117.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 106.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…6b4dbacked Yes | 15c | 64.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.