TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes6c17,323$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No66c10,477$6,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.224258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked No74c8,908$6,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No30c6,863$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,815.8311647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes14c6,102$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c5,685$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.17200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No46c4,963$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.3910625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No49c4,797$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.333438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9894…1b90backed Yes44c4,548$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No51c4,114$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.542759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes32c3,802$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes4c3,532$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dea…ec31backed Yes6c3,192$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed Yes33c2,990$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No38c2,914$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,813.949962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed Yes30c2,334$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.89911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes21c2,313$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.733638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b2…30d0backed Yes5c2,262$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes2c2,248$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.47100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66a…bb25backed Yes4c2,232$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d1…7e8cbacked No38c1,887$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.49837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked Yes57c1,725$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.3870%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked Yes60c1,664$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.631931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes20c1,565$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.94224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda92…264dbacked No35c1,534$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.49977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes58c1,498$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.055352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No68c1,423$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.252334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da3…3321backed No36c1,396$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+104.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c1,288$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5f…82b5backed No58c1,273$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes41c1,211$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.136518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91a4…7547backed Yes8c1,199$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffd…8f68backed Yes2c1,072$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.311060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No14c1,000$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes58c974.31$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.254045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked No77c939.61$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.051030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e5b…bd75backed Yes76c906.16$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.3240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No40c904.66$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+57.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes47c862.79$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.792236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb43…b10abacked Yes58c745.05$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1511…ce9fbacked No72c694.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes43c654.94$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.898355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes64c643.55$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8760%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes43c585.67$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.841030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No30c585.55$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.613551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf6ed…ddadbacked Yes52c581.6$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c554.58$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.0341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed No67c549.4$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce7…60cdbacked No64c529.31$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x171e…6141backed Yes21c510.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes66c500$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.57736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No58c484.18$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.33875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad28…1354backed Yes4c483.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64ba…35d1backed Yes4c444.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5650…8cbabacked Yes68c439.38$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+139.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes14c433.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.248927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes70c429.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.032759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked Yes6c423.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdd…eef3backed No36c417.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.29540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b68…32a2backed Yes9c414.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c2…aa80backed Yes4c407.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314b…209bbacked Yes4c396.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cca…aa4ebacked Yes13c390.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No36c388.83$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.189932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a71…3c62backed No69c381.64$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.241080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes4c371.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0122…159cbacked Yes55c366.84$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No35c363.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.064562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes52c343.66$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.847821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe074…0bdbbacked Yes6c311.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…4366backed Yes19c310.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed Yes12c304.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd1…b557backed Yes68c300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.11010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes69c300$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.491457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039e…c5e0backed No32c298.3$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.31030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes7c296$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9018…37aebacked Yes7c295.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x527c…5f6cbacked Yes36c278.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8287…4e0abacked Yes11c275.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c1…adc5backed Yes11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…6f76backed Yes7c269.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a3…1901backed No56c266.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes61c264.42$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.992347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6694…9c46backed No47c257.17$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes40c254.79$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed No33c250.55$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.85560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+705.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c5b…1459backed No42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x569a…a8abbacked Yes29c238.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…db6ebacked No36c235.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0989…4d83backed Yes58c233.07$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a6…d39ebacked Yes8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55df…e4e6backed No41c211.71$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…ff7bbacked No46c207.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x102d…cc2cbacked No68c206.79$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.175100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No47c202.58$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.581643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08aa…b47abacked Yes10c195.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b7…c654backed Yes11c193.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a2…1657backed Yes7c183.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5366…73aabacked Yes59c183.32$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.