TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf8a3…1901

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
28
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 56 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2024, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Saints vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,006Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$451.94
Cowboys vs. Steelersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+132.6%+$96.9
Dolphins vs. Patriotsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+88.5%+$265.41
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$59.23
All 4 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$59.18
Ducks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+42.9%+$17.75
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$475
Flyers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$254.33
All 4 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,169.98
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$7
Lakers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$155.14
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$240
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$234
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Game 3backed Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT+122.2%+$189.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$676
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT+77.4%+$116.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bautista vs. Aldobacked Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT+75.9%+$186.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+28.3%+$220.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.