UFC · resolved market
Bautista vs. Aldo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d1492ba5badd3bf46e13bf29610c5aa633ef5f1831c9cb3678cb100427e699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bautistaof Bautista, Aldo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Bautista | 55c | 3,219$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bautista | 80c | 2,726$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.17 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…469ebacked Aldo | 2c | 2,551$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aldo | 46c | 2,080$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Aldo | 42c | 1,900$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.89 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bautista | 54c | 1,881$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.96 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Aldo | 48c | 1,815$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.37 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Bautista | 54c | 1,592$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.41 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Bautista | 74c | 971.5$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3a…3021backed Aldo | 43c | 920.19$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Bautista | 55c | 674.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.44 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…014bbacked Aldo | 43c | 591.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…2529backed Aldo | 43c | 580.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Bautista | 57c | 575.28$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…bbc4backed Bautista | 57c | 552.63$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe251…0f8fbacked Bautista | 55c | 547.82$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Aldo | 44c | 513.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.66 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aldo | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Bautista | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…570abacked Bautista | 57c | 485.28$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…94c5backed Bautista | 57c | 473.68$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c61…f292backed Aldo | 45c | 433.76$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…1901backed Bautista | 57c | 432.63$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Aldo | 45c | 428.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…83a3backed Aldo | 46c | 391.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Aldo | 43c | 372.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…2b23backed Aldo | 45c | 312.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…5282backed Bautista | 57c | 286$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…34d3backed Aldo | 43c | 286$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…6ed5backed Bautista | 57c | 230.53$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Bautista | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…d7bdbacked Bautista | 57c | 194$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…a09fbacked Aldo | 43c | 193$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…6058backed Aldo | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…aacebacked Aldo | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…325cbacked Bautista | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Bautista | 56c | 165$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…b640backed Bautista | 57c | 160.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…852dbacked Aldo | 46c | 156.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Aldo | 48c | 153.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…b44cbacked Aldo | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Bautista | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…cc3ebacked Aldo | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…10abbacked Bautista | 56c | 139.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked Aldo | 39c | 136$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e526backed Bautista | 57c | 127.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Bautista | 55c | 121.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Aldo | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Bautista | 55c | 110.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…0bafbacked Aldo | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…ed0ebacked Bautista | 58c | 107.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1135backed Aldo | 44c | 107.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Aldo | 47c | 105.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…f511backed Aldo | 46c | 104.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…c0fabacked Aldo | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Bautista | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Aldo | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Aldo | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Bautista | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…e331backed Bautista | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Bautista | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Aldo | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…9ca3backed Aldo | 45c | 89.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Aldo | 45c | 88.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked Bautista | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…7da3backed Aldo | 44c | 78.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Aldo | 38c | 76.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21c…e780backed Bautista | 57c | 61.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…caa4backed Aldo | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Aldo | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Aldo | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Bautista | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Bautista | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Aldo | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bautista | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Aldo | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…d285backed Aldo | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked Aldo | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…0e50backed Aldo | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bautista | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Aldo | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Aldo | 43c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Aldo | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Aldo | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Bautista | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…6760backed Aldo | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…3581backed Aldo | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Aldo | 47c | 30.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…043abacked Aldo | 39c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Bautista | 57c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Bautista | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bautista vs. Aldothis page
- Harrison vs. VieiraHarrison won
- Holland vs. DolidzeDolidze won
- Pennington vs. PeñaPeña won
- Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.Pereira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.