UFC · resolved market
Harrison vs. Vieira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ff441bd442a35bf3ac62dec13140e4cb384bfff917d8ede4b38d1ef52b1fba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Harrisonof Harrison, Vieira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Vieira | 14c | 4,641$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.35 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Vieira | 14c | 1,158$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Vieira | 21c | 1,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Vieira | 14c | 616.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…6673backed Vieira | 11c | 353.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Vieira | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…74d2backed Vieira | 9c | 241.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Vieira | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Vieira | 10c | 196.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…a09fbacked Vieira | 9c | 189$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…eb16backed Vieira | 14c | 185.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…30d1backed Vieira | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…535ebacked Vieira | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…0bafbacked Vieira | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…e3f9backed Vieira | 11c | 134.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…1983backed Vieira | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Harrison | 70c | 118.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Vieira | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Vieira | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Vieira | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Vieira | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…aacebacked Vieira | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…b02fbacked Vieira | 15c | 89.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Vieira | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…3581backed Vieira | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Harrison | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harrison vs. Vieirathis page
- Bautista vs. AldoBautista won
- Holland vs. DolidzeDolidze won
- Pennington vs. PeñaPeña won
- Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.Pereira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.