UFC · resolved market
Holland vs. Dolidze
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21acae18e9303114d5f77708bf5b0a5e9144c9d495fe75d64a2a2607fd00dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolidzeof Holland, Dolidze
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Holland | 1c | 4,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Holland | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Holland | 40c | 2,768$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Dolidze | 45c | 2,245$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.86 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Holland | 54c | 1,403$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.42 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Holland | 57c | 1,201$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.41 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Dolidze | 43c | 1,043$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.86 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Holland | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Dolidze | 45c | 878.22$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Holland | 5c | 662.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holland | 56c | 548$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.73 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Holland | 57c | 527.35$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dolidze | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.84 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Dolidze | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Dolidze | 42c | 458.45$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked Dolidze | 44c | 455.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Dolidze | 41c | 451.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.21 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Holland | 56c | 357.78$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Holland | 58c | 338.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Holland | 22c | 329.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Dolidze | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Dolidze | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked Dolidze | 47c | 223.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…ae45backed Dolidze | 48c | 202.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Holland | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Holland | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Holland | 57c | 199.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…f7dcbacked Dolidze | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…d646backed Holland | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…02b6backed Dolidze | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Dolidze | 42c | 134.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Dolidze | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Holland | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279f…c056backed Dolidze | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…3f01backed Holland | 58c | 100.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…2c2cbacked Dolidze | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8515…16f1backed Dolidze | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…e3f9backed Holland | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Dolidze | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…ab3fbacked Holland | 59c | 99.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Holland | 55c | 95.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Holland | 57c | 91.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…919dbacked Holland | 58c | 86.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…0bafbacked Holland | 60c | 82.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Dolidze | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Dolidze | 42c | 70.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…535ebacked Dolidze | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…a406backed Dolidze | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd89a…d1bbbacked Holland | 56c | 57.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…e988backed Dolidze | 43c | 56.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Dolidze | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Holland | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Dolidze | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Holland | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Holland | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Dolidze | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…1983backed Holland | 60c | 49.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…f511backed Holland | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Dolidze | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Holland | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…bf5abacked Holland | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Dolidze | 39c | 38.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Holland | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Dolidze | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Dolidze | 39c | 28.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Dolidze | 48c | 26.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holland vs. Dolidzethis page
- Bautista vs. AldoBautista won
- Harrison vs. VieiraHarrison won
- Pennington vs. PeñaPeña won
- Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.Pereira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.