TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x566a…881a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst Tennis at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT6462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$104
UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Chidi Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+104.3%+$15.64
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Mario Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+73.5%+$20.04
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Brandon Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$7.51
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Belal Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Édgar Cháirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$7.3
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Beneil Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Steve Erceg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70.1
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Delija · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.31
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Leal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+44%+$8.79
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Baraniewski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.39
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+108.3%+$15.6
Haqparast vs. Salkilldbacked Haqparast · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.17
Wood vs. Delgadobacked Delgado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$171
Allen vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.88
Malott vs. Hollandbacked Malott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+75.3%+$40.8
Vera vs. Zahabibacked Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+77.1%+$16.83
Grant vs. Jourdainbacked Grant · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.8
Frevola vs. Nelsonbacked Frevola · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Dober vs. Prepolecbacked Dober · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$6.61
Barlow vs. Santosbacked Barlow · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.58
Luciano vs. Oliveirabacked Luciano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.27
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$48.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+58.7%+$26.43
Florida State vs. Stanfordbacked Florida State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+63.9%+$12.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Game Hunters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffsbacked Imperial · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$180.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$33.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Alexandre Mullerbacked Alexandre Muller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.