UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855afa117c1b3d64b96e3e21f3001823ac09581dc71c00e30fbec17abea4fb20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baraniewskiof Aslan, Baraniewski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Baraniewski | 64c | 15,267$9,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,420.4 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Aslan | 36c | 9,902$3,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.64 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Aslan | 36c | 9,443$3,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.89 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a85fbacked Baraniewski | 65c | 7,528$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Aslan | 35c | 7,198$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baraniewski | 66c | 5,634$3,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.14 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Aslan | 33c | 5,500$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.57 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…0a6fbacked Aslan | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 3,918$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.22 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Aslan | 33c | 3,881$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.72 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Baraniewski | 64c | 3,499$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.81 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Aslan | 33c | 3,107$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.38 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Aslan | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baraniewski | 65c | 2,407$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.36 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…f0eebacked Aslan | 36c | 2,400$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996d…4d5ebacked Aslan | 36c | 2,400$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Baraniewski | 63c | 2,366$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Aslan | 34c | 2,348$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.96 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Baraniewski | 67c | 2,242$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.11 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aslan | 36c | 2,222$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…8540backed Aslan | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Aslan | 35c | 1,994$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Baraniewski | 67c | 1,958$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.29 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Aslan | 35c | 1,943$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Aslan | 33c | 1,814$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.42 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…915fbacked Aslan | 37c | 1,738$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Aslan | 37c | 1,622$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…d071backed Aslan | 36c | 1,600$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…1d27backed Aslan | 36c | 1,600$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…b9a6backed Aslan | 36c | 1,600$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…cff5backed Aslan | 35c | 1,600$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Baraniewski | 63c | 1,551$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.9 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d4…3115backed Baraniewski | 65c | 1,541$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Baraniewski | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Baraniewski | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Aslan | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aslan | 35c | 1,470$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.55 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Baraniewski | 65c | 1,464$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Aslan | 37c | 1,412$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.07 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Baraniewski | 66c | 1,160$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.49 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 1,153$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.63 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aslan | 35c | 1,110$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.61 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Aslan | 35c | 1,011$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.91 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Aslan | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…e43abacked Aslan | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Baraniewski | 64c | 999.96$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Aslan | 42c | 956.42$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.7 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…4a7fbacked Baraniewski | 2c | 890$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 4cpaid | +651.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Aslan | 35c | 850.68$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.74 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…4686backed Aslan | 36c | 818.52$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…31acbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a92…b418backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3232…f0ecbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…4027backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…32afbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…7c7dbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7df…3201backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…5ef1backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…42d6backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…d2fbbacked Baraniewski | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee73…1370backed Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…d46dbacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…b8debacked Baraniewski | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…3eaabacked Baraniewski | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Aslan | 34c | 797.35$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Baraniewski | 63c | 767.94$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.14 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Baraniewski | 65c | 754.52$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Aslan | 35c | 677.23$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Baraniewski | 58c | 636.42$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.49 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Aslan | 36c | 627.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…cea8backed Aslan | 36c | 625$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Aslan | 35c | 615.41$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…0973backed Baraniewski | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Baraniewski | 65c | 608.68$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Baraniewski | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Aslan | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Aslan | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Aslan | 34c | 562$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Baraniewski | 64c | 550$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Aslan | 35c | 525.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Baraniewski | 65c | 520$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Aslan | 34c | 499.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Baraniewski | 65c | 463$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Baraniewski | 65c | 340$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Aslan | 35c | 323.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Aslan | 32c | 315.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Aslan | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Baraniewski | 55c | 294.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Aslan | 35c | 281.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Aslan | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Baraniewski | 64c | 270$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aslan | 34c | 254.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Baraniewski | 64c | 233.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Aslan | 43c | 233.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…bb56backed Aslan | 34c | 227.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Baraniewski | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baraniewski | 55c | 225$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9f19backed Aslan | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Baraniewski | 66c | 204.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.