UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28bd2f0ac1d516535f3b2ad4c5485192f74940d5c584cd2b5b4573eca1785f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf975…4354backed No | 55c | 6,529$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 47c | 3,064$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.8 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6069…1581backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Yes | 49c | 1,517$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 47c | 631.82$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 30c | 600.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 46c | 551.31$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…05a7backed Yes | 49c | 455.4$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 49c | 413$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked No | 49c | 247$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 36c | 236$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…ea44backed Yes | 50c | 198.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 190.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…46cfbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f5…e4dabacked Yes | 54c | 185.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed No | 49c | 151$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked No | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed No | 49c | 114.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Yes | 51c | 104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked No | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Yes | 51c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Yes | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Yes | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 45c | 62.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 48c | 57.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Yes | 51c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…42a6backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2874…9fd7backed No | 55c | 51.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Yes | 49c | 50.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…e88dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked No | 55c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.