UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f192b089dad63bfc0a82b6f52a0a3f489b28e7e5ef642752637553c2a98ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81ee…05a7backed Over | 55c | 2,248$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 45c | 2,230$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.8 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 46c | 295$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 46c | 254.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 53c | 140.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 46c | 112$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 54c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 54c | 87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 47c | 83.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 54c | 81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.