UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe6db45e9dad0d53e4e1b24c17642bd8d21f901d14b18bc71d5f922797994a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Over | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Over | 66c | 1,224$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.34 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Under | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Over | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 28c | 239$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 34c | 174$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Under | 30c | 134$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 29c | 133$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 29c | 128$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Over | 70c | 126$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 28c | 112$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 71c | 91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Under | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 71c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 71c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Over | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Over | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…7f80backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.