UFC · resolved market
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff5eec50fd6ee5eb59b4450dbb3632430a4d716f07fdf95e18c6569f6897b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 44c | 2,831$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 41c | 1,959$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.04 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 55c | 1,639$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.51 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 59c | 1,218$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 60c | 1,191$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.63 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 57c | 855.78$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.23 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 59c | 543.89$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…c822backed No | 63c | 523.15$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 58c | 382.74$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…c0dfbacked Yes | 42c | 322.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.82 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Yes | 41c | 301.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.29 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 59c | 273.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 61c | 218.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 204.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed No | 59c | 193$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 61c | 185$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Yes | 39c | 177$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…3975backed No | 61c | 166$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 60c | 145$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed No | 59c | 122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 59c | 122$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Yes | 43c | 115.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 61c | 106$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…f8aebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Yes | 39c | 94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca32…8d76backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Yes | 41c | 76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes | 40c | 61.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Yes | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 58c | 55.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 43cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x448f…a258backed Yes | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…b6bfbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…e40fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…0616backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…2c52backed No | 59c | 20.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)Prates won
- Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.