UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c76176d2b7ec1a004822f5499c7a47cf589b78e53cff4da0bbb6082aa7cbd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 52c | 258$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed No | 52c | 235$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed No | 52c | 216$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 52c | 185$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 50c | 170.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 51c | 116.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Yes | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed No | 52c | 93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +121%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Yes | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Yes | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf905…bee8backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Yes | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)Prates won
- Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.