TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$786,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$736,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58ff…73a4backed Yes27c452,937$122,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,450.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed No73c172,144$125,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,764.1610639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked No74c168,368$125,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,2545100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No73c60,417$43,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,486.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…f77bbacked Yes25c47,210$11,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,685.79333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Yes26c36,126$9,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,252.293522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f38…2e85backed Yes25c32,037$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No74c28,308$20,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,336.2639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No75c23,665$17,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,958.057041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c20,729$5,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,180.526830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No76c20,464$15,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,911.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes25c16,587$4,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,151.76349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed No76c15,175$11,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.81145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes18c13,271$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.747051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf0…0540backed Yes25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x000f…fa77backed Yes26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4006339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No74c9,788$7,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.663030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No74c8,417$6,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.911154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes24c8,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9201618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-72.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No74c7,865$5,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.0577052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes25c7,317$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.782142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes0c6,229$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.224546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd56d…de17backed Yes27c5,960$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes30c5,000$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.571361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes26c4,902$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.9414344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No77c4,200$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9748550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c3,817$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.621508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes26c3,773$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes25c3,750$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.0922142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes15c2,668$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.58110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes3c2,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6424351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes24c1,784$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.958856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…48f0backed Yes26c1,341$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbf…4a3bbacked No71c1,300$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes25c1,252$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.019724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c70…e76dbacked Yes26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c1,132$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75340%0 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes26c1,066$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.315851.9%82 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No75c1,012$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…f9a6backed Yes25c920.12$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No67c897.64$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.2224738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1925628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc66…47a9backed Yes25c784.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+69.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No76c724$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3095…b2a6backed Yes25c659.25$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.771030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x352e…3c42backed Yes26c585.77$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f53…1081backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed No75c500$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12316139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013935.3%49 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed Yes25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Yes26c480.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes27c476$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.52156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-86.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xefc3…1c9cbacked No76c430.73$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c91…fd02backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f6…050bbacked Yes25c401.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x193d…2eb4backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6678…d4b6backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018144.8%81 W · 100 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b07…5de1backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a4…83cebacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b94…66c4backed Yes28c382.14$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7090…0414backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes27c369.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd695…850ebacked Yes26c341.15$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c320$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752850%14 W · 14 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+98.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1982…f55ebacked No76c270.5$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…f63dbacked Yes24c270.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e6…ed6abacked Yes26c265.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa728…5a45backed Yes26c251.35$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.352030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3a…16fbbacked No76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604245.2%19 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9171…a0c6backed Yes25c235.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.83821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes5c204.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105014%7 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe067…b980backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+912.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a61…2f2cbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505337.7%20 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71bd…50d2backed Yes25c198.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508540%34 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb826…8d67backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016645.8%76 W · 90 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd7…7575backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes18c160$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…42c1backed Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x254f…7b31backed Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.56058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed No75c149.93$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.22050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8397…cd27backed Yes25c124$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+52.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes25c112.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…fd19backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-70.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf0c…6565backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x905c…35ccbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2815332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc19…0b8abacked Yes26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.