NFL · resolved market
Will Devonta Smith win Super Bowl LIX MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55dcffd89ebc40a030c74e8dba99a1bb7bd97c1faa58e4a243caeab612462b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a7…e661backed Yes | 2c | 75,083$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.19 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…19cbbacked Yes | 3c | 47,700$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…f474backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,671$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 1c | 1,358$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,011$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +111%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…faeebacked Yes | 2c | 930$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…5b22backed Yes | 2c | 833.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Devonta Smith win Super Bowl LIX MVP?this page
- Will AJ Brown win Super Bowl LIX MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts win Super Bowl LIX MVP?Yes won
- Will Jayden Daniels win Super Bowl LIX MVP?No won
- Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?No won
- Will Travis Kelce win Super Bowl LIX MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.