TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,166 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1638…339bbacked No55c86,009$47,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,964.837041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeee…f346backed Yes46c66,687$30,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,533.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes44c28,915$12,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,722.426830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes44c12,979$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,750.072142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes6c12,587$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.31110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked No56c10,827$6,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,771.975100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x000f…fa77backed Yes45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes3c8,215$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed Yes43c7,914$3,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,403.242360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x079a…3ef8backed No56c7,765$4,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.231145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes44c7,300$3,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.96349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes43c5,500$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.914248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No55c4,370$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.439754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes44c4,234$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.5441540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No56c4,095$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.863030%9 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+81.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Yes44c3,737$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.289259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c3,059$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.841508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6546…d13cbacked Yes46c2,183$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes46c2,175$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No55c1,946$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.611154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes46c1,309$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.46156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.28per pick34cpaid-86.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0f5…4850backed Yes44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes44c1,131$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes45c1,000$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.113024.6%32 W · 98 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4308234.1%28 W · 54 L-10.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4608550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001450%7 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+630%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked No55c999.89$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9510937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed Yes40c955.75$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.32035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdde4…c6a4backed Yes44c912.02$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes46c884.78$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40790%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked No57c864.88$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875a…4290backed Yes45c829.16$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked No56c750$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33011446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed0…679cbacked Yes9c576.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes44c568.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No55c549.98$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.4977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes44c499.93$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.979724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd249…6a1dbacked Yes45c444.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9469…b468backed Yes45c442.04$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.921163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes44c400.59$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.57123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7090…0414backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No64c397.91$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5314342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No56c369.64$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.645628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No57c361$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.236759.7%40 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa842…08e5backed No57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No55c332.97$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8312842.2%54 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes39c309.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.45832.8%19 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13219948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1321936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes44c251.62$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.716339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No51c250$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12328337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes8c239.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85014%7 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10e0…781abacked Yes44c227.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b05…48f2backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No55c220$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.851969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No55c210.98$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.348047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x980f…5b55backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8616139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943d…7d1abacked No57c197.09$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x873d…8592backed Yes44c196$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8237…be01backed No56c186.91$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed No55c185.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e3…5a08backed Yes45c162.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.510345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No57c143$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.491668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+72.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb54e…8f34backed Yes45c137.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes28c122.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2725643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc091…7e18backed Yes45c118.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf12…efddbacked Yes45c118.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Yes43c118.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.072050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b59…eccdbacked No57c115.91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e48…c23bbacked Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4de…7845backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd430…1f89backed Yes45c112.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5e…22f2backed Yes45c109.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd307…0533backed Yes44c107.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1f…f71bbacked Yes37c107$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f61…fc7dbacked Yes45c104.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa933…f420backed No57c104.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x024f…a29cbacked No57c103$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e94…7745backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-83.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1108…cb47backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ab…651abacked Yes45c98.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b1…05cebacked No57c95.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a7…f47cbacked No56c95.02$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc2…426cbacked No57c94.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bca…be9fbacked No57c94.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebe…2f35backed Yes44c93.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…2506backed Yes44c93.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes40c92.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.47131%22 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e9d…fc59backed No57c92.35$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc15…3e71backed No56c92.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080d…9874backed No56c91.27$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb813…a53bbacked Yes44c91.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x128f…1fb8backed No56c90.89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.