UFC · resolved market
Barlow vs. Santos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4f5ca6c7250486f998e16c3578fda7cc702129b09d8fbbd4778db006913522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santosof Barlow, Santos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec65…cf87backed Barlow | 61c | 11,663$7,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,142.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Santos | 34c | 9,999$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,599.34 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Santos | 31c | 7,702$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314.53 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Santos | 31c | 5,627$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.62 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Barlow | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Santos | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.97 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…911ebacked Barlow | 69c | 3,195$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Santos | 63c | 2,853$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.27 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Barlow | 69c | 2,776$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.51 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Santos | 31c | 2,500$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.99 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Barlow | 69c | 2,084$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Barlow | 32c | 1,650$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.23 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Barlow | 69c | 1,650$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Barlow | 63c | 1,248$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.63 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Barlow | 42c | 1,191$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.34 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Barlow | 69c | 971.01$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Barlow | 69c | 855.07$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…b2f9backed Barlow | 32c | 810.82$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Barlow | 69c | 788.41$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Santos | 64c | 743.18$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.64 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Barlow | 70c | 711.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.69 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Barlow | 51c | 701.82$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Santos | 77c | 657.3$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Santos | 40c | 621.36$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.22 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Santos | 30c | 589.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.99 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Barlow | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Barlow | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Santos | 68c | 556.03$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Barlow | 68c | 527.71$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.51 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Santos | 75c | 521.74$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Barlow | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Barlow | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Santos | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Santos | 30c | 496.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Barlow | 69c | 463$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.47 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Santos | 32c | 399.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.99 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…6d0ebacked Santos | 65c | 383.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Barlow | 69c | 322.58$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.58 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Barlow | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Santos | 53c | 285.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Barlow | 26c | 259$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Barlow | 41c | 246.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Santos | 35c | 231.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Santos | 53c | 206.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Barlow | 63c | 160$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Barlow | 66c | 152.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Santos | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Barlow | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Barlow | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Barlow | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Barlow | 65c | 134.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…bbd7backed Santos | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Barlow | 72c | 123.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1114…d59abacked Santos | 41c | 121.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Santos | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Barlow | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Santos | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Barlow | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Santos | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Barlow | 69c | 85.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Barlow | 69c | 85.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Barlow | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Santos | 31c | 75.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +179%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Barlow | 67c | 60.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Barlow | 72c | 59.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…2fa2backed Barlow | 70c | 57.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Barlow | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Santos | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Santos | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Santos | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Barlow | 68c | 46.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Barlow | 71c | 42.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Barlow | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3ac2backed Santos | 33c | 36.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Barlow | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Santos | 38c | 33.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked Santos | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Barlow vs. Santosthis page
- Allen vs. de RidderAllen won
- Bekoev vs. BelgarouiBelgaroui won
- Dober vs. PrepolecDober won
- Fiorot vs. JasudaviciusFiorot won
- Frevola vs. NelsonNelson won
- Grant vs. JourdainJourdain won
- Lisboa vs. CrodenCroden won
- Luciano vs. OliveiraLuciano won
- Malott vs. HollandMalott won
- Silva vs. ParkSilva won
- Vera vs. ZahabiZahabi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.