UFC · resolved market
Lisboa vs. Croden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x819046566d427403db0dc7af1b80c904dfc7cea890ef94340fe3af12e7642712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crodenof Lisboa, Croden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec65…cf87backed Croden | 52c | 10,152$5,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Lisboa | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Lisboa | 12c | 8,278$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.91 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lisboa | 45c | 6,267$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820.31 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Croden | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Lisboa | 46c | 3,480$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.3 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Lisboa | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a85fbacked Croden | 59c | 2,601$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Croden | 51c | 1,960$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.2 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Croden | 55c | 1,834$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.22 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Lisboa | 48c | 1,576$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.04 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Lisboa | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Croden | 53c | 1,317$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Croden | 51c | 1,007$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.56 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Lisboa | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc0…c9e8backed Croden | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Lisboa | 66c | 895.04$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.83 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lisboa | 29c | 887.4$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.45 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lisboa | 44c | 875.79$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.35 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Croden | 55c | 818.18$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Croden | 54c | 765.17$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.87 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Lisboa | 44c | 733.44$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.71 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Lisboa | 4c | 683.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Lisboa | 52c | 613.6$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Lisboa | 46c | 604.35$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Lisboa | 46c | 594.96$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.68 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…a4e4backed Croden | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Croden | 54c | 512.08$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Croden | 51c | 366.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.83 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Croden | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Lisboa | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Croden | 55c | 299.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Lisboa | 42c | 241.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lisboa | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Lisboa | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Croden | 55c | 205$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…c9f4backed Lisboa | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Croden | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Croden | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Croden | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Croden | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Croden | 37c | 173.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Lisboa | 59c | 168.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Croden | 63c | 108.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Lisboa | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Croden | 53c | 85.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…bbd7backed Lisboa | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Croden | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Lisboa | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Croden | 62c | 64.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Lisboa | 50c | 60.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Croden | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Lisboa | 58c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Croden | 42c | 43.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Croden | 55c | 42.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Croden | 72c | 35.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Croden | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Lisboa | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lisboa | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lisboa vs. Crodenthis page
- Allen vs. de RidderAllen won
- Barlow vs. SantosSantos won
- Bekoev vs. BelgarouiBelgaroui won
- Dober vs. PrepolecDober won
- Fiorot vs. JasudaviciusFiorot won
- Frevola vs. NelsonNelson won
- Grant vs. JourdainJourdain won
- Luciano vs. OliveiraLuciano won
- Malott vs. HollandMalott won
- Silva vs. ParkSilva won
- Vera vs. ZahabiZahabi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.