TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Fiorot vs. Jasudavicius

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fiorotof Fiorot, Jasudavicius
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,396,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,389,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,396,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Fiorot68c1,251,583$854,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396,660.253036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Jasudavicius32c220,000$69,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,4002060%12 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Jasudavicius32c170,643$54,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,592.9335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jasudavicius32c158,624$51,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,453.668940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Jasudavicius31c152,540$47,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,681.115149%25 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jasudavicius31c140,000$43,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,40019544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jasudavicius33c96,000$31,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,2206850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Jasudavicius31c93,780$29,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,326.996346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Jasudavicius31c46,232$14,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,331.843327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Jasudavicius32c44,642$14,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,089.126841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Jasudavicius32c33,000$10,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4102759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Jasudavicius31c21,944$6,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,802.643525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Fiorot69c20,000$13,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,210.067656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Jasudavicius31c19,020$5,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.792958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Jasudavicius32c17,472$5,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,654.1912541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Jasudavicius31c14,000$4,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.993151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec65…cf87backed Jasudavicius33c13,733$4,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,531.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Jasudavicius32c12,775$4,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,034.527545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jasudavicius32c11,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,52037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Jasudavicius32c9,903$3,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,168.968220.7%17 W · 65 L-12.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Fiorot67c8,034$5,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.4222342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Fiorot69c8,000$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4803959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jasudavicius31c7,467$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.8320233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jasudavicius32c7,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x857c…cb02backed Jasudavicius33c6,742$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Jasudavicius34c5,800$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Jasudavicius33c5,177$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Jasudavicius31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5502441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Jasudavicius32c4,194$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.0821044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Jasudavicius32c4,020$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.792630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Jasudavicius33c3,636$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.4612134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Fiorot66c3,474$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Jasudavicius32c3,396$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.1413039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Jasudavicius33c3,220$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.62236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jasudavicius18c2,988$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.5220139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Fiorot67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.055240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Fiorot70c2,857$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Jasudavicius32c2,800$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90819531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Jasudavicius32c2,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80016247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jasudavicius31c2,483$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…e0fbbacked Jasudavicius33c2,386$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Jasudavicius31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dcd…1722backed Fiorot67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601520%3 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Jasudavicius32c2,000$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64510149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Jasudavicius31c1,848$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.267841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Fiorot70c1,602$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.5229848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Jasudavicius32c1,547$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.339228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Fiorot66c1,537$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52126743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef25…dc22backed Jasudavicius33c1,531$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Fiorot70c1,436$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.915232.7%17 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Jasudavicius32c1,400$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.7210928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Fiorot70c1,367$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.215356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Jasudavicius32c1,200$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38053956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Fiorot67c1,199$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.692231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Fiorot69c1,165$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.276451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Fiorot68c1,103$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.949164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Fiorot69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Fiorot68c900$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28817850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Fiorot69c869.57$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.576756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Fiorot69c869.57$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.576155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jasudavicius31c859$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0133253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Fiorot69c804.19$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.33748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jasudavicius31c779.57$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.674337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ba…9c04backed Jasudavicius33c779.05$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Jasudavicius32c765$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.83234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Fiorot67c749.99$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.53732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd547…8a9fbacked Fiorot67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde9…20f1backed Jasudavicius31c722$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jasudavicius31c718$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0213953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Jasudavicius32c700$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2247237.5%27 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Jasudavicius33c674.24$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.56533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Jasudavicius31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…c72dbacked Jasudavicius31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Fiorot73c631$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.378248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x156b…baa0backed Fiorot68c592.19$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.55244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f3…a4e4backed Fiorot69c579.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.711861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Fiorot71c572.66$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.241776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c6d…e194backed Fiorot68c544.13$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.792646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fiorot67c502.99$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9918560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Fiorot68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Jasudavicius32c500$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Fiorot67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1654981.6%40 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Fiorot69c499.99$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1554940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Jasudavicius32c499.96$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.998835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Jasudavicius33c457.42$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.954425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc5ab…341bbacked Fiorot68c438.7$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.72441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Fiorot70c386$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.87451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Jasudavicius32c347$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0419230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Fiorot74c329$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.126451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Jasudavicius31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Jasudavicius31c320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.239959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed Jasudavicius31c320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.21752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Fiorot68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Fiorot67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9936745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Jasudavicius31c299.87$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9612052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Jasudavicius32c296.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9328743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0a…291cbacked Fiorot68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf53b…4340backed Jasudavicius35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb05…4e1bbacked Fiorot69c279.65$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed Jasudavicius32c240$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.