UFC · resolved market
Frevola vs. Nelson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84dd0ceb8f5ad8fc4488f72d78034be35253ed1575a56b454e1e9e0f72662793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nelsonof Frevola, Nelson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $796,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $826,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $796,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Frevola | 48c | 589,210$284,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284,923.01 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Nelson | 52c | 240,453$124,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,610.39 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Nelson | 51c | 84,716$43,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,313.89 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Nelson | 51c | 75,957$38,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,017.82 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Nelson | 52c | 62,089$32,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,622.91 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Nelson | 52c | 47,090$24,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,562.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nelson | 51c | 34,056$17,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,554.62 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Frevola | 46c | 24,683$11,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,379.01 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked Nelson | 52c | 21,000$10,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,140 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nelson | 52c | 20,056$10,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,626.94 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Frevola | 46c | 15,664$7,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,205.5 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nelson | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Frevola | 52c | 10,500$5,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,460 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…b9d1backed Frevola | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nelson | 52c | 7,922$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,804.08 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Nelson | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Frevola | 46c | 5,915$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.34 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Nelson | 51c | 5,897$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,889.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…b2f9backed Nelson | 69c | 5,621$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Nelson | 52c | 4,100$2,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Frevola | 17c | 4,088$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.11 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Frevola | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Frevola | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nelson | 51c | 3,583$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.39 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…0aaabacked Frevola | 52c | 3,568$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nelson | 48c | 2,953$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.01 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…8a9fbacked Nelson | 54c | 2,770$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Frevola | 31c | 2,679$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.12 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Frevola | 46c | 2,549$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Nelson | 68c | 2,489$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.78 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Frevola | 8c | 2,070$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nelson | 75c | 2,043$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.02 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Frevola | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Frevola | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Nelson | 74c | 1,956$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Nelson | 48c | 1,946$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.52 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Nelson | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Frevola | 35c | 1,750$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.26 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Frevola | 1c | 1,447$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Frevola | 46c | 1,349$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Frevola | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Frevola | 53c | 1,063$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.27 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Frevola | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.31 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Frevola | 46c | 999.43$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.74 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Frevola | 23c | 968.93$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…7a21backed Frevola | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Frevola | 15c | 792.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Nelson | 51c | 765$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.85 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Frevola | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Frevola | 49c | 699.99$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Frevola | 49c | 671.6$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Frevola | 42c | 570.03$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Nelson | 75c | 536$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Nelson | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Nelson | 51c | 512.5$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nelson | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Nelson | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nelson | 73c | 456.63$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Frevola | 47c | 436.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Frevola | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Frevola | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Frevola | 49c | 317.86$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Nelson | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Nelson | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Frevola | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Frevola | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Frevola | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Frevola | 48c | 207.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Nelson | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Nelson | 56c | 198.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb05…4e1bbacked Nelson | 76c | 194.92$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Nelson | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Nelson | 60c | 174.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…a76bbacked Frevola | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Frevola | 32c | 150.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Nelson | 53c | 142.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…4340backed Nelson | 54c | 142.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked Nelson | 49c | 136$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd191…9b32backed Frevola | 11c | 133.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Nelson | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…bbd7backed Frevola | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Frevola | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Frevola | 49c | 113.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a85fbacked Nelson | 48c | 108.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Frevola | 36c | 106.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Frevola | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Nelson | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Frevola | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Frevola | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Frevola | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1114…d59abacked Nelson | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Nelson | 49c | 88.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…3094backed Frevola | 43c | 85.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nelson | 55c | 75.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Nelson | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Frevola | 49c | 70.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Nelson | 47c | 67.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…e07bbacked Nelson | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Nelson | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Frevola | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Frevola vs. Nelsonthis page
- Allen vs. de RidderAllen won
- Barlow vs. SantosSantos won
- Bekoev vs. BelgarouiBelgaroui won
- Dober vs. PrepolecDober won
- Fiorot vs. JasudaviciusFiorot won
- Grant vs. JourdainJourdain won
- Lisboa vs. CrodenCroden won
- Luciano vs. OliveiraLuciano won
- Malott vs. HollandMalott won
- Silva vs. ParkSilva won
- Vera vs. ZahabiZahabi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.